UBS Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF At 0.76 In Twelve Months - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

UBS's projection of USD/CHF at 0.76 in twelve months reflects a confident bearish outlook for the pair, which currently sits at 0.8100. The forecast aligns with prevailing economic trends suggesting a strengthening Swiss Franc amid global uncertainties and potential interest rate adjustments by the Swiss National Bank.

Supporting this view, market participants seem inclined towards a weaker dollar combined with a resilient Franc, as suggested by recent consensus and bank forecasts that trend towards lower targets for USD/CHF. The implication of UBS's stance implies an expectation that the Franc will continue to gain relative strength, potentially countering factors that would typically weaken it, such as geopolitical tensions or economic slowdowns in Europe.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our internal consensus for USD/CHF reflects a median target of 0.7950 by March 2026, with a broader range observed between 0.7900 and 0.8100. This indicates that UBS's forecast suggests a more aggressive decline in USD/CHF than market consensus, particularly as the December 2026 consensus target dips to 0.7600.

Specific firm targets from our coverage reaffirm this divergence: - JPMorgan: Dec26 0.8000 - Goldman: Dec26 0.7600 - MorganStanley: Dec26 0.7500

How other firms see it

The consensus appears mixed, with several firms aligning towards a weaker USD, though some retain slightly higher targets than UBS’s bearish outlook. Notably, Goldman shares a target of 0.7600 for December 2026, which aligns closely with UBS, while MorganStanley is more conservative at 0.7500.

• JPMorgan leans towards a less aggressive decline, forecasting 0.8000.
• Barclays echoes a similar sentiment with a December target of 0.7800.

Overall, there seems to be a divergence between UBS's target and those of others that forecast relatively milder declines in the Swiss Franc's relative value against the dollar.