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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Nordea | — | 1.2400 |
EUR/USD · 2026 Bank Forecast
Spot 1.1206 · 28-bank consensus 1.1563 (+3.2%) by Dec 2026
Institutional 2026 consensus for EUR/USD — the euro to US dollar exchange rate — aggregated from 28 major sell-side investment banks. Each firm contributes a Dec-2026 year-end target alongside quarterly checkpoints. Below: the distribution shape, outliers, quarterly trajectory, and per-firm breakdown.
Other pairs: GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · USD/CAD · AUD/USD · NZD/USD
Bank consensus from 28 banks puts EUR/USD at 1.1563 (range 1.0850–1.2400) by Dec 2026 — +3.2% from the last close of 1.1206.
EUR/USD — 2026 consensus trajectory · quarter-by-quarter
Quarterly path (Mar · Jun · Sep · Dec) · price-vs-forecast overlay
Per-firm distribution · EUR/USD Dec '26 · sorted table
Per-firm dot plot · all-firms table · per-firm bars · 38 firms
| Bullish |
| 1.2200 |
CIBC | Bullish | 1.2200 |
Morgan Stanley | Bullish | 1.2150 |
Nomura | Bullish | 1.2000 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 1.1800 |
UBS | Bullish | 1.1800 |
MUFG | Bullish | 1.1800 |
All 28 desk targets for EUR/USD
The cross-bank consensus puts EUR/USD at 1.1550 (median) by December 2026, based on the published year-end targets of 28 investment banks. Individual desk targets span 1.0850 to 1.2400, with a cross-firm mean of 1.1563. That spread matters as much as the midpoint: a tight range signals genuine sell-side agreement on the EUR/USD path, while a wide one tells you the desks are split on the macro drivers behind it.
Nordea currently holds the highest year-end 2026 EUR/USD target among the desks we track, at 1.2400 — 7.4% above the cross-bank median. The full board — every covered bank's target, quarterly path and positioning versus consensus — is part of the paid tier.
Continuously. Investment banks revise their published EUR/USD targets as new research lands — typically around central-bank meetings, major data releases and their scheduled forecast rounds. This page recomputes the EUR/USD consensus median, range and per-firm distribution automatically whenever any covered desk publishes a new target, so the aggregate always reflects each bank's latest published view rather than a quarterly snapshot.
Across the major sell-side research desks we track, the most-cited drivers shaping the EUR/USD outlook are afd political risk undermining eur sentiment, broad dollar strength, broad-based euro selling across g10 crosses, crude oil above usd100/barrel and natural gas at eur82/mwh driving inflation above target, and domestic european investor behaviour vs international investor perception. The single most widely shared of these themes appears in the views of 1 different banks, which makes it the closest thing to a true cross-desk consensus narrative for EUR/USD right now. These are the structural and cyclical forces — the relative monetary-policy paths, growth differentials, fiscal dynamics and capital-flow shifts — that strategists keep returning to when they frame their EUR/USD year-end targets. Watching which of these drivers gains or loses backing over time is often a more durable signal than any single point forecast, because it shows where the institutional debate is actually concentrated.
The main risks that investment-bank strategists flag for EUR/USD center on the scenarios that would push the pair away from the central consensus path. Recurring risk triggers cited across the desks include a us-iran deal ending the conflict leading to a significant fall in energy prices and easing pressure on french bonds and the euro; afd-led government formed in saxony-anhalt; firewall collapses destabilizing federal coalition; continued french fiscal concerns keeping the oat-bund spread elevated and fx markets unwilling to scale back the french risk premium; and energy prices fall back, reducing inflation pressure and causing markets to price out additional hikes. These are the alternative paths — the bullish and bearish tail cases — that banks build into their scenario analysis around their base case. Because several independent desks raise overlapping triggers, the clustering itself is informative: it highlights the catalysts the market is most alert to and the conditions under which the EUR/USD consensus would be revised. Monitoring these shared risk narratives helps you understand not just where banks expect EUR/USD to go, but what would make them change their mind.
Our EUR/USD consensus aggregates the published forecasts and research narratives of the major global investment banks, comparing their year-end targets, quarterly paths and the reasoning behind them side by side. Rather than relying on any one house view, the page clusters the drivers and risk scenarios that recur across desks so you can see where the sell side genuinely agrees and where it splits. Each driver above shows how many separate banks cite it, turning a pile of individual reports into a single legible map of institutional conviction. The full per-firm distribution, individual bank targets and the detailed scenario levels behind each view are available to subscribers, while the aggregate consensus picture is open to everyone.
Three banks cut EURUSD forecasts toward a firmer dollar
3 firms · Year-end target lowered implying softer euro
Past shifts