Forecasts
Forecasts
This page is part of FX Bank Forecast — an aggregator that normalises bank research PDFs into a searchable forecast and commentary database. Explore the top desks below or jump straight to the consolidated /forecasts and /reports indexes.
We refresh bank research every 15 minutes through our pdf-intake worker. New trade ideas, currency views, and quarterly forecasts surface automatically across the relevant currency, pair, and firm pages.
Top bank desks we track
INR supported by RBI reserve accumulation slowing and improving portfolio flows. India's growth premium vs EM peers provides fundamental support, though low beta limits upside.
INR steady with RBI support. Low beta limits upside but provides defensive positioning. Targeting 86.50.
BNP Paribas forecasts EUR/USD at 1.21 by Q4 2026 (5.2% higher vs current 1.15). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Gradual USD depreciation in an Expansion regime; EUR and high-yield EM lead, Asia FX lags". Bullish stance on EUR
Citi forecasts USD/MXN at 19.2 by Q4 2026 (4.3% lower vs current 18.4). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Out-of-consensus bullish USD; cyclical re-acceleration drives a stronger dollar through H1, fading into year-end". Bearish
Commerzbank forecasts AUD/USD at 0.71 by Q4 2026 (7.6% higher vs current 0.66). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "USD under pressure on excessive Fed cuts and Fed independence concerns; EUR overvalued but USD overvaluation great
INR supported by improving portfolio flows and RBI policy shift. India growth premium provides fundamental support. Targeting 85.00.
Bullish MXN on carry, nearshoring flows, and USMCA resolution expectations. Positioning is clean after 2025 washout. Banxico's measured easing pace preserves carry advantage. MXN 13% YTD gain not overextended vs EM peers.
Latest bank commentary
NZIER shadow board backs RBNZ hold this week (May 27) at 2.25% but rate rises seen ahead
· investinglive-cb· May 24, 2026Most NZIER shadow board members back holding New Zealand's OCR at 2.25% in May (statement due at pm New Zealand time on May 27), citing weak growth and Iran war uncertainty, though all agree rates must rise over the coming year. Summary: Source: NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board
Monday open indicative forex prices, 25 May 2026
· investinglive-fx· May 24, 2026I'll be back with the weekend news soon. In war developments, the two-week war entered day 86. The two sides are edging closer to a deal, so they say. The USD is down a little from late Friday levels, so early FX is a believer! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at inves
Four Charts for Sunday
· robin-brooks-substack· May 24, 2026The Japanese Yen has fallen below Turkish Lira to become the world's weakest currency
Update on the blockade, Canada, Turkey and yields
· robin-brooks-substack· May 23, 2026A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
The US Blockade of Iran after Six Weeks
· robin-brooks-substack· May 23, 2026Much of the commentary on the US blockade says it's failed, but that's total nonsense
US Week Ahead: Looking for signs of stress in personal spending
rbc· gmail-imap· May 22, 2026RBC Royal Bank https://click.website.rbc.com/?qs=ABB7InYiOjEsImQiOjQ4ODR9AAQAAAAAAGXWEdUff1CyVU37y85ym1ibrL-FOSNY_J2U1PLvO4hhAIvemqQfeWbvot_V4HxH7GueSCfUSDBe6Bi-3I4jQx1lPQKs5MkbzyD7ZQ View Online
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.