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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 31 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 31 institutional desks. No promotion.
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
ING | Bearish | 56.30 |
J.P. Morgan | — | 53.50 |
Deutsche Bank | — | 52.50 |
MUFG | Bearish | 52.00 |
Morgan Stanley | — | 52.00 |
Barclays | — | 51.50 |
Bank of America | Bearish | 51.00 |
RBC Capital Markets | — | 50.50 |
All 18 desk targets for USD/TRY
USD/TRY · 2026 Bank Forecast
Spot 47.14 · 18-bank consensus 50.13 (+6.3%) by Dec 2026
Institutional 2026 consensus for USD/TRY, aggregated from 18 major sell-side investment banks. Each firm contributes a Dec-2026 year-end target alongside quarterly checkpoints. Below: the distribution shape, outliers, quarterly trajectory, and per-firm breakdown.
Other pairs: EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF · USD/CAD · AUD/USD · NZD/USD
Bank consensus from 18 banks puts USD/TRY at 50.13 (range 43.50–56.30) by Dec 2026 — +6.3% from the last close of 47.14.
USD/TRY — 2026 consensus trajectory · quarter-by-quarter
Quarterly path (Mar · Jun · Sep · Dec) · price-vs-forecast overlay
Per-firm distribution · USD/TRY Dec '26 · sorted table
Per-firm dot plot · all-firms table · per-firm bars · 31 firms
CBK |
Mizuho |
BNP |
HSBC |
UBS |
The cross-bank consensus puts USD/TRY at 50.25 (median) by December 2026, based on the published year-end targets of 18 investment banks. Individual desk targets span 43.50 to 56.30, with a cross-firm mean of 50.13. That spread matters as much as the midpoint: a tight range signals genuine sell-side agreement on the USD/TRY path, while a wide one tells you the desks are split on the macro drivers behind it.
The dollar to lira exchange rate — USD/TRY in market convention — carries a bank consensus of 50.25 (median) for December 2026, drawn from 18 investment banks' published targets, with individual desk forecasts spanning 43.50 to 56.30. A higher USD/TRY reading means a stronger US dollar and a weaker lira; a lower reading means the lira is gaining ground against the dollar.
ING currently holds the highest year-end 2026 USD/TRY target among the desks we track, at 56.30 — 12.0% above the cross-bank median. The full board — every covered bank's target, quarterly path and positioning versus consensus — is part of the paid tier.
Continuously. Investment banks revise their published USD/TRY targets as new research lands — typically around central-bank meetings, major data releases and their scheduled forecast rounds. This page recomputes the USD/TRY consensus median, range and per-firm distribution automatically whenever any covered desk publishes a new target, so the aggregate always reflects each bank's latest published view rather than a quarterly snapshot.
Across the major sell-side research desks we track, the most-cited drivers shaping the USD/TRY outlook are high carry relative to the dollar, high domestic interest rates, imprisonment of istanbul mayor emad moglu, large-scale political protests across turkey, and political uncertainty ahead of presidential election. The single most widely shared of these themes appears in the views of 1 different banks, which makes it the closest thing to a true cross-desk consensus narrative for USD/TRY right now. These are the structural and cyclical forces — the relative monetary-policy paths, growth differentials, fiscal dynamics and capital-flow shifts — that strategists keep returning to when they frame their USD/TRY year-end targets. Watching which of these drivers gains or loses backing over time is often a more durable signal than any single point forecast, because it shows where the institutional debate is actually concentrated.
The main risks that investment-bank strategists flag for USD/TRY center on the scenarios that would push the pair away from the central consensus path. Recurring risk triggers cited across the desks include continued or widening political unrest following mayor's arrest driving further capital outflows. These are the alternative paths — the bullish and bearish tail cases — that banks build into their scenario analysis around their base case. Because several independent desks raise overlapping triggers, the clustering itself is informative: it highlights the catalysts the market is most alert to and the conditions under which the USD/TRY consensus would be revised. Monitoring these shared risk narratives helps you understand not just where banks expect USD/TRY to go, but what would make them change their mind.
Our USD/TRY consensus aggregates the published forecasts and research narratives of the major global investment banks, comparing their year-end targets, quarterly paths and the reasoning behind them side by side. Rather than relying on any one house view, the page clusters the drivers and risk scenarios that recur across desks so you can see where the sell side genuinely agrees and where it splits. Each driver above shows how many separate banks cite it, turning a pile of individual reports into a single legible map of institutional conviction. The full per-firm distribution, individual bank targets and the detailed scenario levels behind each view are available to subscribers, while the aggregate consensus picture is open to everyone.