Euro: Downtrend extends toward 1.1445 against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro remains under pressure, extending its downtrend towards the strategically significant level of 1.1445 against the US Dollar, as highlighted by UOB. This bearish sentiment reflects ongoing concerns over Eurozone economic stability and diverging monetary policy expectations between the ECB and the Fed. With the current spot price at 1.1679, the technical breakdown underscores potential further downside momentum for the Euro. A breach of the aforementioned level would not only trigger deeper support tests but also align with the broader USD bullish outlook, making it crucial for traders to monitor this unfolding scenario.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for EUR/USD sits at 1.1700, with a range from 1.1200 to 1.2000 across various firms. Notably, Commerzbank and Barclays mark the upper end with targets of 1.1900 for March 2026, contrasting with Citi’s more pessimistic outlook of 1.1300.
How firms align
Aligning with the bearish view presented by UOB, Credit Agricole targets 1.1584 for March 2026, indicating a similar sentiment. Conversely, firms like Commerzbank and Barclays expect the Euro to recover towards 1.1900, suggesting a divergence in outlook. For further insights, see our reports on BofA and Goldman.
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight a trend towards a more subdued Euro outlook, with Wells Fargo adjusting their target to 1.1759 for March 2026. This shift, alongside the insights detailed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, underscores the persistent divergence between Euro and U.S. monetary policy expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD faces potential decline toward 1.1445; break confirms deeper downside risk.
- 02Focus on technical levels—1.1679 is critical for momentum traders.
- 03Watch for macroeconomic data releases impacting USD strength ahead of key ECB decisions.
Market implications
Investors should monitor the 1.1445 support level closely; a breach could trigger further selling pressure. Upcoming economic releases from both the Eurozone and the U.S. could also influence sentiment, especially around our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
If the ECB signals a more hawkish stance or if U.S. economic data shows signs of weakness, this could reverse the current bearish trajectory for the Euro. Market positioning could also shift dramatically if a surprise rate decision occurs at the next ECB meeting.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Euro: Seen drifting toward 1.1400 against US Dollar – BBH
EUR/USD technical breakdown toward 1.1400 signals weakening support structure; FX desks should monitor for acceleration below key level.
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