EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rises toward 1.1550 after rebounding from channel bottom
The EUR/USD has recently shown resilience, rebounding from a significant support level and moving toward 1.1550, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market. This upward movement follows speculations around the ECB's rate path, heightening interest as macroeconomic data unfolds this week. The current spot at 1.1679 suggests traders are pricing in further appreciation in the near term, making the 1.1550 target noteworthy for positioning strategies.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently rests at 1.1717 (median across multiple firms) with a range of expectations from 1.1300 at Citi to 1.2500 at Goldman. In contrast to the headline's focus on reaching 1.1550, it suggests a more conservative view compared to several firms projecting targets above the current spot price.
How firms align
Firms such as Commerzbank and Barclays are bullish with forecasts of 1.1900 for March 2026, closely aligning with expectations for further gains. On the other hand, Citi's more cautious stance at 1.1300 for March 2026 deviates from the consensus sentiment, indicating divergence amid variable outlooks. Refer to /reports/commerzbank and /reports/barclays for detailed insights.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show many firms adjusting their targets higher, with Nordea projecting 1.1884 and Goldman at 1.1800 for March 2026, signaling stronger bullish momentum. These adjustments bolster the outlook against the backdrop of /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, which discusses pricing dynamics in relation to the ECB's moves.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently at 1.1679, targeting 1.1550 after recent channel rebound.
- 02Trend indicates bullish positioning ahead of potential ECB announcements.
- 03Market focus on macro data could trigger moves towards 1.1900 with valid overall bullish sentiment.
Market implications
Upcoming market events include ECB meetings and macroeconomic data releases that could shape future EUR/USD movements. Key resistance levels near 1.1900 could act as critical points of interest per our consensus numbers.
Risks to this view
An unexpected dovish stance from the ECB or disappointing economic data could invalidate the bullish outlook, particularly if significant support at the channel bottom fails to hold, pushing prices below 1.1550.
Sentiment by currency
USD-EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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