Euro: Resistance at 1.1450 caps upside against US Dollar – Scotiabank
The euro remains capped by strong technical resistance at 1.1450 against the US dollar, indicating limited upside potential for euro shorts in the near term. While the current market spot is at 1.1700, the consensus among various firms projects a slower path towards higher targets, with projections ranging from 1.12 to 1.2. Scotiabank's analysis emphasizes this resistance level, reinforcing the bearish sentiment around the euro amidst a broadly bullish outlook for the dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with UBS at the upper bound (1.2000) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). Scotiabank's recent target revision aligns the euro's potential with the lower end of this spectrum, suggesting cautious positioning ahead of the 1.1450 resistance.
How firms align
Scotiabank's revised targets suggest a bearish stance for the euro with a March26 target at 1.1734, closely trailing the current spot. In contrast, firms like JPMorgan and Goldman maintain expectations for more upward movement, forecasting 1.1800 for March26. The divergence in outlook reflects differing assumptions about eurozone economic resilience versus US dollar strength, with JPMorgan acknowledging potential bullish catalysts for the euro.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate an evolving consensus, as firms like Goldman and JPMorgan adjusted their March26 targets to reflect broader bullish sentiment, suggesting they see upward pressure despite current resistance. For further insights, refer to /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, which discusses divergence patterns at this level.
How firms align with this view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD faces strong resistance at 1.1450; a vital level to monitor.
- 02Traders should prepare for volatility around this level as it holds key technical significance.
- 03Economic data releases and ECB commentary could act as catalysts for a breakout or breakdown.
- 04Momentum could shift if the market closes above 1.1450, altering sentiment and positioning.
Market implications
Next week, market players should watch for economic data releases that could test the 1.1450 resistance. If eurozone data suggests strength, it could provide the momentum needed to push through this critical barrier. The current consensus target of 1.1700 indicates expectations for further euro strength, should resistance be breached.
Risks to this view
A failure to maintain upward momentum could arise from disappointing economic data from the eurozone or stronger-than-expected US economic indicators, which would likely reaffirm dollar strength. If resistance at 1.1450 holds, we may see declines back towards lower consensus targets if market sentiment shifts.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro trims losses against the US Dollar, but Fed rate-hike bets keep gains in check.
Persistent Fed rate-hike expectations limit EUR/USD upside despite intraday euro recovery, suggesting USD support remains intact on policy divergence.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Looks to extend intraday descent below 1.1400 on firmer USD
Technical breakdown below 1.1400 signals USD strength; watch for continuation toward next support levels on technical invalidation of higher lows.
Euro: Political and growth risks point lower against US Dollar – HSBC
HSBC identifies structural euro weakness from political and growth headwinds, supporting USD strength in medium term.
Euro: Range trading likely to persist against US Dollar – Scotiabank
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