Euro: Range trading likely to persist against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank's commentary suggests that the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain in a range-bound trading environment, with current market sentiment sitting neutral on both the euro and the dollar. As the ECB and Fed maintain their divergent monetary policies, fluctuations may be limited, impacting trade strategies for institutional players. This outlook reinforces the importance of key support and resistance levels as traders seek to capitalize on short-term price movements within the established range.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700, with a range observed between 1.1200 and 1.2000 across various firms. Scotiabank's latest target of 1.1734 aligns closely with this consensus, while other firms like Deutsche Bank at 1.1800 and UBS at 1.2000 embody the upper-end expectations.
How firms align
Several firms echo Scotiabank's range-bound outlook, including HSBC with their target at 1.1700, indicating a firmly neutral stance. Meanwhile, JPMorgan and Goldman project slightly higher targets of 1.1800 and 1.1800 respectively, suggesting a modest bullish sentiment in the medium term. For detailed insights, refer to our /research/hscb and /research/jpmorgan pages.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions highlight Scotiabank's upward adjustment for the Mar26 target to 1.1734, alongside revisions from JPMorgan and Goldman, both maintaining expectations at 1.1800. For further context, our previous insight on EUR/USD underscored a significant consensus gap, as seen in the /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path analysis.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD is trading at 1.1700 as range trading prevails.
- 02Focus on resistance at 1.1800, key for bullish shifts.
- 03Watch for ECB decisions impacting EUR/USD sentiment.
- 04Volatility expected in near term with Fed policy in play.
Market implications
Next week's ECB meeting and potential shifts in forward guidance will be critical to watch, especially with our consensus number of 1.1700 at risk. Traders should remain alert for movements testing the 1.1800 resistance level.
Risks to this view
An unexpected hawkish shift from the ECB or weak US data prompting a dovish Fed response would invalidate the current range outlook, potentially pushing EUR/USD towards extreme levels outside the current range.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Political and growth risks point lower against US Dollar – HSBC
HSBC identifies structural euro weakness from political and growth headwinds, supporting USD strength in medium term.
Euro: Sintra seasonality points to tactical strength against US Dollar – BNY
Seasonal patterns around ECB Sintra conference suggest tactical EUR/USD strength window ahead; monitor for positioning unwinds if data disappoints.
EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Struggling to regain 1.1400 amid geopolitical uncertainty
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Euro: Shifts from selloff to consolidation against US Dollar – UOB
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