EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold and Silver outlook is negative for the start of this week [Video]
The outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD appears bearish as technical indicators suggest a near-term strengthening of the USD, a sentiment echoed by FXStreet in their latest analysis. The current spot for EUR/USD sits at 1.1253, which is notably below many analysts' median expectations for March 2026 of 1.1700. This divergence raises questions about market positioning ahead of upcoming economic data, emphasizing the importance of the USD in the immediate future.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with CIBC's bullish stance at the upper end (1.1866) and ABN AMRO's cautious view at the lower end (1.1284). FXStreet's negative outlook aligns with the bearish positioning on EUR and GBP as we begin the week.
How firms align
CIBC supports a bullish view toward EUR/USD with their target of 1.1866 for March 2026, which contrasts sharply with those like TMGM and Mizuho, targeting 1.1447 and 1.1300 respectively. These positions suggest a split in opinion, as discussed in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-18.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have seen firms like Nordea raise their March 2026 target to 1.1884, indicating a more optimistic outlook despite current sentiment. Our ongoing coverage shows a persistent gap between consensus expectations and current spot prices, highlighting potential volatility as referenced in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-16.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trading at 1.1253 implies bearish sentiment ahead of key data releases.
- 02Technical setups suggest USD strength may persist, influencing trading strategies.
- 03Upcoming Fed and ECB meetings could act as catalysts for rate speculation.
- 04Mizuho's lower target of 1.1300 highlights significant bearish sentiment.
Market implications
Focus this week on upcoming economic data releases, particularly from the U.S., which may impact the USD's strength. Analysts should monitor the 1.1200 support level in EUR/USD, as a breakdown here could accelerate losses. Our consensus target of 1.1700 sets the stage for significant movement in the pair.
Risks to this view
A shift in economic data that favors the Eurozone or unexpectedly strong ECB signals could invalidate the current bearish outlook for EUR/USD. Watching for any signs of a more dovish Fed could also trigger a reversal, particularly if major market trends pivot in response to unforeseen data releases.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBPComposite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Technical outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Oil [Video]
Fed vs ECB: Rate gap adds to pressure on EUR/USD
Widening Fed-ECB rate differential creates structural headwind for EUR/USD below parity; monitor for further policy divergence signals in upcoming central bank communications.
Euro: French risks cap upside against US Dollar – ING
French political/fiscal uncertainty creates technical resistance for EUR/USD rally, keeping dollar bids alive on dip into soft US data.