EUR/USD Price Forecast: Downward-sloping 20-day EMA reflects bearish tone, ECB policy awaited
The recent bearish tone in EUR/USD is reinforced by a downward-sloping 20-day EMA, signaling a tactical shift ahead of the ECB policy meeting. Market participants are keenly awaiting guidance that may further embroider the dollar's current bullish sentiment across the board. The current spot at 1.1679 reflects a cautious bearish bias as traders align their positions with the broader market expectations, particularly regarding interest rates. How hawkish or dovish the ECB's stance will be could set the tone for near-term price action.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1717 (median across 11 firms), with BNP Paribas at the lower bound (1.1600) and Commerzbank providing an optimistic view at the upper end (1.1900). This setting indicates a continued division among traders, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the ECB decision.
How firms align
Firms such as Commerzbank and Barclays are expecting a higher EUR/USD by March 26 (1.1900 and 1.1700 respectively), aligning more closely with the broader market expectations but diverging from the bearish sentiment implied in the recent forecasts. On the contrary, Rabobank and ANZ have forecasts pointing towards 1.1609 and 1.1600 indicating a bearish outlook on the euro, resonating with the headline's view.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from several firms have taken a more cautious approach, with Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley both revising their March 26 targets to 1.1800 and 1.2000, suggesting a slight recovery may be viewed as possible. Insights from our research indicate that EUR/USD is currently trading about 3% below the December 2026 consensus of 1.20 as per our publication on the pair (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Expectations of ECB guidance are pivotal for EUR/USD trajectory.
- 02Traders should monitor 1.1700 for potential resistance.
- 03A hawkish ECB could shift sentiment sharply towards USD strength.
- 04Focus on interest rate decisions as a key driver for volatility.
Market implications
Looking ahead, traders should watch the ECB policy decision closely on the horizon, particularly for insights on interest rate trajectories that could influence EUR/USD. Our consensus at 1.1717 suggests that any deviation either up or down could signal significant market repositioning, particularly if the ECB takes a dovish or hawkish stance.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bearish sentiment could occur if the ECB were to deliver unexpectedly hawkish commentary, potentially pushing EUR/USD above the 1.1800 level. Furthermore, any macroeconomic data indicating strong recovery in the Eurozone could undermine the bearish outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro holds steady against the US Dollar as markets await clarity on a possible US-Iran peace deal
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls struggle to breach a previous support near 1.1600
Failure to break 1.1600 resistance suggests EUR/USD consolidation range; watch for breakout direction as technical support holds.
Euro: Seen drifting toward 1.1400 against US Dollar – BBH
EUR/USD technical breakdown toward 1.1400 signals weakening support structure; FX desks should monitor for acceleration below key level.
Germany's final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for May remains at 2.7% YoY: What it means for EUR/USD?
Bank desks on this topic
Kevin Warsh navigates a hawkish Fed shift
Articles Kevin Warsh navigates a hawkish Fed shift 15:12 FX Rates United States Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Improved economic momentum and elevated inflation suggest the Federal Reserve will acknowledge the possibility of future ra
FX Daily: War is over – maybe
Articles FX Daily: War is over – maybe 08:02 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download “We ended the war with Iran today,” said President Trump yesterday evening. Brent crude fell 4% on the news, while short-dated US yields and the dollar fel
ING Monthly: Already playing into extra time
Articles ING Monthly: Already playing into extra time 11:00 Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Traditionally, the World Cup may have offered a welcome reprieve from global uncertainty and heavy headlines. Still, there are moments when eve
FX: Cyclical dollar bullishness takes over
Articles FX: Cyclical dollar bullishness takes over 10:33 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download After much discussion about a structural decline in the dollar last year, investor sentiment is now swinging towards a cyclical dollar rally.