EUR/USD Price Forecast: Needs to break above 20-day for sustained recovery
The recent analysis indicates EUR/USD requires a decisive break above the 20-day moving average to establish a sustained recovery. Currently, the currency pair is trading around 1.1550, underperforming relative to market consensus which sees the euro gaining against the dollar, with a medium-term target of 1.1900 by June 2026. The divergence suggests the market is positioned for an upward correction, yet the failure to breach the moving average could lead to renewed selling pressure.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1900 for June 2026 (median across firms), with BofA at the lower bound (1.1700) and CIBC at the upper (1.2200). The analysis from fxstreet.com suggests that breaking higher is crucial for the pair's recovery trajectory.
How firms align
Firms like BofA, Barclays, and BNPPARIBAS have proactively adjusted their March forecasts closer to the headline’s implied direction, with targets set at 1.1700 and 1.1800 respectively. In contrast, CITI appears less optimistic, forecasting a more bearish outcome at 1.1300 for March 2026. This divergence highlights varied market perspectives within the current environment.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from key players reflect a growing optimism towards EUR/USD, with several firms lifting their targets: Deutsche Bank projects 1.1800 for March, while Morgan Stanley revised up to 1.2000. Refer to our recent research at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path for insights on underlying factors.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD needs to clear the 20-day moving average for a solid recovery.
- 02Focus on potential moves if 1.1600 is retested and held.
- 03Monitoring ECB policy signals could act as a catalyst for EUR strengthening.
- 04Increased positioning could lead to volatility around upcoming economic data releases.
Market implications
Next, watch for EUR/USD to test the 1.1600 level as a significant resistance point. Calendar events, especially any ECB announcements, may provide the necessary catalyst to propel the pair higher. Our consensus target of 1.1900 underscores this outlook.
Risks to this view
A reversal could be triggered if EUR/USD fails to break above the 20-day moving average, suggesting weakness in euro buying. Additionally, unexpected changes in U.S. economic data or Fed policy could strengthen the dollar, invalidating bullish forecasts.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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Euro: Seen drifting toward 1.1400 against US Dollar – BBH
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