EUR/USD Price Forecast: Upbeat US Dollar stresses on major currency pair
The EUR/USD exchange rate continues to encounter pressure as uncertainties around U.S. monetary policy bolster the dollar, leading to forecasts suggesting a declining trajectory for the euro against its U.S. counterpart. With the current spot at 1.1446, recent projections highlight a tempered outlook, as firms remain cautious about the euro's strength amid sustained dollar resilience. The market is particularly sensitive to upcoming macroeconomic indicators, making this an important period for traders focusing on this major currency pair.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across 8 firms), with Morgan Stanley projecting the highest target at 1.2000 while Lloyds sits at the lower end at 1.1331. The sentiment from [fxstreet.com](fxstreet.com) aligns with the overarching trend of caution as the dollar continues to exert pressure on the euro, contributing to bearish perspectives around this pair.
How firms align
Firms such as RBC (Mar26 1.1600) and Nomura (Mar26 1.1700) illustrate a more optimistic view on the euro, somewhat countering the prevailing negative sentiment. Conversely, Stanchart’s revised forecast of 1.1400 indicates an increasingly bearish outlook, aligning more closely with the sentiments outlined in the source article. For a deeper understanding, refer to our internal coverage on these firms at /reports/rbc and /reports/stanchart.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show a significant downshift in expectations, particularly from Stanchart and Morgan Stanley. The latter revised its March target to 1.2000 while maintaining a cautious stance for longer-term projections. For further insights, see our research on the euro's performance and expectations at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-30.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current spot EUR/USD rate at 1.1446 reflects bearish market sentiment.
- 02Caution prevails as traders eye U.S. data releases impacting dollar stability.
- 03Watch for upcoming employment figures; a surprise could shift forecasts significantly.
Market implications
In the short term, traders should closely monitor the upcoming U.S. employment data due later this week, which could provide clearer direction for the dollar and, consequently, the EUR/USD rate. Our consensus target remains at 1.1700, suggesting potential upside if the euro stabilizes.
Risks to this view
A shift in monetary policy tone from the ECB or significantly better-than-expected economic data from the U.S. could invalidate the current bearish outlook on the euro, pushing the EUR/USD pair higher against current projections.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Rebound capped by nearby resistance against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD rebound facing technical resistance suggests limited upside momentum; USD strength likely to persist near-term.
Euro: Modest rebound against US Dollar as yields rise – Danske Bank
Rising eurozone yields supporting EUR/USD rebound suggests renewed carry interest; monitor whether move sustains above technical resistance or reverses on growth concerns.