EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Struggling to regain 1.1400 amid geopolitical uncertainty
The EUR/USD pair faces notable challenges in its quest to regain the 1.1400 mark amidst escalating geopolitical uncertainty. Current consensus holds EUR/USD at 1.1700, indicating a significant divergence from the parity levels seen in recent forecasts. The market's apprehension reflects not just regional tensions but broader economic implications that could shift investor sentiment in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with Deutsche Bank projecting the upper end at 1.2500 and Scotiabank hovering near the lower boundary of 1.1200. This reflects the mixed sentiment within the market, contrasting sharply with the headline focus on levels just shy of 1.1400.
How firms align
Specifically, firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are forecasting a more optimistic near-term target of 1.1800 for March 2026, while Scotiabank's recent revision highlights a slightly more conservative view with a target of 1.1734. This divergence indicates differing expectations on the euro's strength against the dollar in the coming months, as outlined in our internal analysis on /reports/jpmorgan and /reports/scotiabank.
What the data shows
Recent adjustments reflect a cautious positioning by various analysts, with Scotiabank increasing their December 2026 forecast to 1.2200. Overall, fluctuations in expectations signal that market players remain on high alert for geopolitical developments that might influence these valuations, as explored in our piece /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD resistance near 1.1400 contrasts with a consensus expectation of 1.1700.
- 02Geopolitical risks may weigh heavily on trading strategies in the coming weeks.
- 03Potential catalysts include shifting economic data or sudden geopolitical revelations.
- 04Continued revisions by key firms suggest volatility ahead.
Market implications
Investors should monitor the EUR/USD's movement around the 1.1400 resistance level as it will dictate the next trading flow. Upcoming economic reports and geopolitical updates will be critical in assessing the alignment with our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A reversal in the current sentiment could occur if significant stabilization in geopolitical tensions is achieved, or if economic indicators suggest stronger-than-expected growth in the US economy, prompting a faster adjustment in rate expectations.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Shifts from selloff to consolidation against US Dollar – UOB
Euro: Sintra tone and CPI support gains against US Dollar – ING
ECB's Sintra messaging combined with supportive CPI data removes near-term headwinds for EUR/USD, suggesting consolidation above recent support levels.
Euro: Higher levels seen as slow grind against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank's structural USD strength view suggests EUR/USD resistance remains elevated; positioning unlikely to shift on mean-reversion alone.
Euro holds ground against the US Dollar as traders weigh Middle East tensions and Fed outlook
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