Euro: Shifts from selloff to consolidation against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro has transitioned from a pronounced selloff against the US Dollar to a phase of consolidation, as highlighted by UOB. Current trading at 1.1700 appears to reflect a stabilization in sentiment amid rising market uncertainties. A tighter range could set the stage for future directional movement, particularly as traders await clarity on forthcoming economic data and central bank directives. This evolving dynamic is crucial, especially given the broader trend seen across various forecasts, indicating a more muted Euro outlook in the medium-term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across 8 firms), with predictions ranging from a low of 1.1100 (Citi) to a high of 1.2000 (UBS). The stability reflects more cautious positioning as market participants adjust to evolving economic signals.
How firms align
In alignment with the current price level, firms such as HSBC and Scotiabank are forecasting relatively conservative targets of 1.1700 and 1.1734 respectively for March 2026. UOB's own projection of 1.1536 for the same tenor suggests a more bearish sentiment compared to JPMorgan's higher estimate of 1.1800. For further insights, see our report on /reports/hsbc and /reports/jpmorgan.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a general trend of downward adjustments among several firms, with Scotiabank recently adjusting its target for March to 1.1734 and December to 1.2200. This tightening around the Euro’s outlook further reinforces the cautious sentiment, as discussed in our published research, specifically in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01The Euro is stabilizing at 1.1700, transitioning from a selloff phase.
- 02Watch for consolidation patterns that may signal future breakout levels.
- 03Market volatility ahead as central bank decisions loom.
- 04Bearish signals from firms like UOB could suggest further downside risks.
Market implications
Next, traders should monitor for any shifts around the 1.1700 level, particularly in response to upcoming economic data releases and central bank meetings. The consensus forecast suggests the market is in a holding pattern, reflecting uncertainty about future directional bias.
Risks to this view
A significant shift could occur if the European Central Bank adopts a more hawkish stance or if stronger-than-expected economic data emerges from the Eurozone, potentially pushing the Euro above our consensus target.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Struggling to regain 1.1400 amid geopolitical uncertainty
EUR/USD rejection below 1.1400 signals geopolitical risk premium supporting USD safe-haven positioning.
Euro: Sintra tone and CPI support gains against US Dollar – ING
ECB's Sintra messaging combined with supportive CPI data removes near-term headwinds for EUR/USD, suggesting consolidation above recent support levels.
Euro: Higher levels seen as slow grind against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank's structural USD strength view suggests EUR/USD resistance remains elevated; positioning unlikely to shift on mean-reversion alone.
Euro holds ground against the US Dollar as traders weigh Middle East tensions and Fed outlook
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