EUR/USD rebounds from 1 (100%) support Arc. Potential advance toward 1.1258
The EUR/USD has demonstrated a bullish rebound from the critical 1.0000 support level as confirmed by Arc Cycle Analysis, indicating potential upward momentum towards the 1.1258 resistance zone. This technical bounce underlines a near-term upside bias amid a generally bearish sentiment towards the USD. The 1.1258 level will be critical in determining the continuation of this bullish narrative and validates the positioning of several firms projecting targets above current spot levels.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1600 (median across 10 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and Lloyds at the lower (1.1200). The recent bullish sentiment highlighted by fxstreet.com aligns with this view, particularly as many firms place targets around or above the current spot price.
How firms align
Several firms reflect a bullish outlook consistent with the recent bounce. For instance, Nomura has set a March target at 1.1700 and a June target at 1.1800, aligning closely with the bullish sentiment from the rebound mentioned in the headline. In contrast, TMGM anticipates a more conservative outlook with targets around 1.1448, diverging from the bullish framework.
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight a shift in expectations, with RBC projecting a March target of 1.1600 and a December target of 1.2000, illustrating a growing consensus for strength in the EUR. This aligns with our earlier research published on October 21, pointing towards an unresolved gap between current pricing and consensus levels (/research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-21).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD targets show firm bullish sentiment; key resistance at 1.1258 ahead.
- 02Traders should monitor movements around 1.1258 for confirmation of strength.
- 03Any breakdown below 1.12 could shift sentiment significantly towards the USD.
Market implications
Investors should closely watch the 1.1258 level for potential breakout confirmation. The upcoming economic releases and positioning around the EUR could influence immediate trends as traders align with our consensus target of 1.1600.
Risks to this view
A drop below critical support at 1.1200 would invalidate the bullish case and trigger bearish sentiment. Additionally, any hawkish turn from the Fed could solidify the USD's stance, undermining the EUR's gains.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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