EUR/USD trade idea for Monday [Video]
The EUR/USD pair currently trades at 1.1419, showing a stable position amidst a neutral sentiment towards both the euro and the dollar. FXStreet's trade idea for Monday emphasizes monitoring market dynamics and price action, which is essential as the pair consolidates below the consensus target. With forecasts suggesting a median target of 1.1700 for March 2026, it highlights potential upside if bullish momentum can be sustained in the upcoming sessions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 for March 2026 (median across 12 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.1900) and TMG at the lower (1.1447). FXStreet's view aligns closely with this consensus, suggesting potential paths based on market developments.
How firms align
Specific firms such as Goldman and Morgan Stanley forecast a stronger EUR/USD, projecting targets of 1.1800 and 1.2000 respectively for March 2026. In contrast, BofA adopts a more cautious stance with a lower target of 1.1700, emphasizing divergence in expectations across analysts. For further details, refer to our internal targets on BofA and Goldman at /research/bofa and /research/goldman.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate a strong consensus around 1.1700, suggesting that shifts in market sentiment could push the pair towards these levels. Notably, our earlier insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-26 provide context for potential ECB influence as we approach policy decisions.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD spot: 1.1419, with a consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026.
- 02Watch for consolidation above 1.1400 — this could indicate bullish continuation.
- 03Upcoming ECB meeting is a critical event that may influence market direction.
- 04Expect volatility if the U.S. economic data deviates from expectations.
Market implications
Going forward, traders should monitor levels around 1.1400 for potential support, as a break above 1.1500 could signal a bullish trend toward the consensus target of 1.1700. Additionally, the market should stay attuned to economic releases ahead of the ECB meeting scheduled later this month.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected U.S. economic performance could shift the outlook, driving EUR/USD below 1.1300 and invalidating current bullish sentiment. Additionally, any dovish signals from the ECB may also alter investor sentiment dramatically.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD ahead of a key week: Holding near lows
EUR/USD near technical lows ahead of event risk this week signals positioning for potential USD strength if economic data disappoints eurozone expectations.
Euro: Energy risks cap recovery against US Dollar – ING
Persistent eurozone energy vulnerabilities constrain EUR/USD upside even as technical recovery attempts emerge, favoring dollar strength on relative macro resilience.
Euro gains strongly against US Dollar on revival of risk-on sentiment
Risk-on flows are supporting EUR/USD; watch for mean reversion if equity volatility spikes or US rates stabilize.