Euro: Bullish bias builds above key support against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro is currently experiencing a bullish bias against the US Dollar, as evidenced by its consolidation above key support levels. UOB highlights this trend, which is significant as it suggests a potential for upward movement should this support hold. With the current spot at 1.1434, the market is monitoring for confirmation of a bullish breakout, as positioning could shift rapidly depending on the EUR/USD dynamics. This development matters now as it stands sharply in contrast to recent forecasts that indicated weaker prospects for the Euro.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently 1.1700 (median across firms), with targets ranging from 1.1000 (Citi) to 1.2200 (Commerzbank). UOB's outlook aligns with the bullish sentiment and suggests an upward trajectory if support levels maintain, which is echoed by firms like Goldman and Danskebank, who are targeting 1.1800 and 1.1866 respectively for March 2026.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank both project targets above the current spot, with Goldman expecting 1.1800 by March 2026. This aligns with the bullish outlook presented by UOB, while Citi’s more conservative view at 1.1300 reflects caution. Further detail can be found in our internal reports, including /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent forecasts have been revised positively for the Euro, with Goldman and HSBC adjusting their targets upwards, reflecting growing bullish sentiment. See our insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-12 for further analysis on these trends.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01The Euro is rising above key support at 1.1400 against the USD.
- 02Traders should monitor for breakout confirmations at current levels.
- 03Recent upward revisions point to stronger Euro prospects as firms realign targets.
Market implications
Watch for the Euro to solidify above 1.1434, which could trigger further gains towards the consensus target of 1.1700. Key economic indicators and ECB statements in the coming weeks may provide additional direction.
Risks to this view
A breakdown below 1.1400 would invalidate the current bullish outlook for the Euro and could lead to a rapid reevaluation of long positions, particularly if US economic data surpasses expectations.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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