Euro: Bullish bias but capped by resistance against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro maintains a bullish bias against the US Dollar, though its potential for further appreciation is constrained by resistance levels. Current spot trading at 1.1434 faces technical hurdles that need to be breached for sustained upward movement. As highlighted by UOB, the resistance suggests limited room for upside, which aligns with our own assessment that a break above strong resistance levels is critical for gaining momentum in EUR/USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.1900) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). UOB's recent views on the Euro reflect a cautious bullish outlook, consistent with the upper tier of our forecasts, particularly around the 1.17 target for Dec-26.
How firms align
Goldman and Commerzbank are among those aligning with the bullish stance on the Euro, with targets of 1.1800 and 1.1900 respectively for March 2026, as noted in our internal reports. Conversely, Citi holds a more bearish outlook with a target of 1.1300 for the same period, which contrasts with the sentiment expressed in the headline.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms like Rabobank and Danske Bank indicate an upward adjustment in their targets, now standing at 1.1759 and 1.1866 for March. This aligns with our insights on the convergence around the 1.17 level, as noted in our publication /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-16.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current spot at 1.1434 faces resistance levels limiting upside in EUR/USD.
- 02A break above key resistance is needed for substantial EUR appreciation.
- 03Consensus EUR/USD target shows divergence among firms, heavily focused around the 1.17 mark.
Market implications
Investors should monitor resistance levels closely as EUR/USD trades at 1.1434; a breakthrough could open doors for rallying towards the consensus target of 1.1700. The upcoming ECB meeting could also serve as a catalyst for volatility.
Risks to this view
A reversal in sentiment would likely occur if inflation data or ECB policy shifts suggest a stronger USD or tighter monetary policy, pushing the EUR/USD below 1.1400—hitting on the lower end of Citi's outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro flattens against US Dollar while entering the weekend
Euro: Looking for direction against US Dollar – Commerzbank
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Stays pressured below mid-1.1400s after failing near 200-SMA on H4
Technical rejection at 200-SMA on H4 suggests near-term USD strength bias; EUR/USD consolidation risk below 1.1450 until support breakdown.