Euro: Seen holding 1.1300 against US Dollar before recovery – ING
ING's assessment that the Euro will hold at 1.1300 against the USD before a potential recovery taps into broader market expectations. Currently, the EUR/USD hovers around 1.1500, suggesting that traders are pricing in moderate optimism amidst ongoing dollar strength. Given the consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026, market participants are bracing for upward adjustments, even as short-term fluctuations could bring temporary dips.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is currently 1.1700 for March 2026 (median across 8 firms), with Citi forecasting the lower end at 1.1300 and UBS projecting a robust 1.2000. ING's view of holding at 1.1300 closely mirrors Citi's target but is less optimistic compared to others like Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan who expect an uptick to the 1.1800 region in the same tenor.
How firms align
Firms such as Citi (1.1300) and JPMorgan (1.1800) are somewhat aligned with ING’s cautious stance but diverge on the recovery outlook. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank (1.1800) and Goldman (1.1800) are leaning towards stronger performance, as highlighted in our internal /reports/jpmorgan and /reports/deutschebank.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show ScotiaBank raising their March target to 1.1734, emphasizing market support for a stronger Euro. Additionally, our published research notes that the current EUR/USD is trading significantly lower than the 1.200 consensus level, as scrutinized in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD stands at 1.1500, reflecting mixed sentiment ahead of upcoming policy shifts.
- 02ING sees potential support at 1.1300, indicating a defensive posture in FX trading.
- 03Watch for shifts around 1.1700 as a key resistance level; this may dictate the directionality of trades.
- 04Strategic positioning will be critical as forecasts show a rising trend towards 1.1800.
Market implications
Future movements will hinge on how the Euro behaves around the 1.1300 support level. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming ECB announcements that could impact rate expectations, in light of the consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A breakdown below 1.1300 could signal a more prolonged weakness for the Euro, particularly if US economic data continues to favor the dollar's strength. A reversal could also be spurred by unexpected dovish shifts in ECB's outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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