Euro weakens across the board – How low can EUR/USD and EUR/JPY go? [Video]
The Euro is experiencing broad-based weakening, impacting pairs like EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. Current spot for EUR/USD is 1.1446, raising questions about potential downside levels as forecasts show significant divergence among firms. The reduction in value reflects geopolitical uncertainty and potential monetary policy shifts, making this moment particularly pivotal for traders and investors alike.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1634 (median across 12 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper end (1.2200) and Lloyds at the lower end (1.1200). The current market situation suggests traders should prepare for a potential drift towards the lower bounds following recent sentiment shifts.
How firms align
Several firms, including Societe Generale (targeting 1.1700) and RBC (1.1600), echo a more bullish outlook compared to the current spot price. In contrast, BofA has revised its March 2026 target down to 1.1300, indicating a more cautious stance which contrasts with the headline sentiment. Check our detailed insights for more on this divergence in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-04.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions underscore the volatility in EUR sentiments, with firms like Citi predicting a lower target of 1.1300, suggesting rising concerns about Eurozone economic conditions. For further analysis, refer to the related research on EUR/USD from early October.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD spot at 1.1446 indicates near-term weakness.
- 02Focus on downside risks as consensus diverges considerably.
- 03Key resistance could form around 1.1700 if momentum shifts.
- 04Watch for ECB policy signals that might influence Euro strength.
Market implications
Looking ahead, key resistance in EUR/USD is at 1.1700 while the consensus points towards a potential decline toward 1.1331. The October ECB meeting could serve as a critical inflection point affecting EUR positioning.
Risks to this view
A unexpected tightening from the ECB or stronger US economic data could sharply reverse sentiment, pushing the Euro back up against these pressures. Close attention should be paid to employment figures and inflation rates in the coming weeks.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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