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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.
Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari reiterated concerns about persistent inflation, indicating that recent inflation statistics did not alter his outlook. The revisions suggesting a robust GDP growth highlight the continuing resilience of the U.S. economy and consumer spending, which may complicate the Fed's path on interest rates. This backdrop is critical for FX markets as stronger economic indicators could support a firmer USD, particularly against risk-sensitive currencies.
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.075 (median across 8 firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.12) and BofA at the lower (1.04). The perspective from the WSJ aligns closely with the expectations from JPMorgan, which is also projecting a modestly stronger USD throughout this period.
JPMorgan maintains an aligned stance with an EUR/USD target of 1.10 for March 2026, reflecting a bullish outlook consistent with Kashkari's concerns about inflation and its implications on monetary policy. Meanwhile, BofA holds a contrary view with a target of 1.04, suggesting a bearish sentiment that may not fully account for the economic resilience discussed by Kashkari.
Recent forecasts indicate an adjustment towards stronger growth with our consensus reflecting a slightly bullish outlook on the USD as inflation persists. This aligns with insights shared in /research/inflation-impact-analysis, highlighting the responsiveness of the Fed's stance on economic data.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Investors should monitor forthcoming inflation reports closely, particularly as they could affirm or challenge current USD strength. A breach above 1.08 in EUR/USD could signal shifting sentiment, which may prompt a reevaluation of this consensus target.
Risks to this view
A substantial drop in inflation metrics or signs of a slowdown in economic growth could force a reversal of current USD bullish bets, particularly if the Fed signals a wait-and-see stance on interest rate adjustments.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY GBPComposite USD score: +0.65
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