EUR/USD Price Forecast: Brace for a further sell-off toward 1.1200
The EUR/USD pair is currently facing downward pressure, with forecasts suggesting a potential sell-off towards the 1.1200 mark. This bearish trajectory comes amid a prevailing bullish sentiment for the USD, reflecting broader market expectations. Despite ongoing support above parity, the medium-term outlook favors EUR bears as technical indicators weaken, indicating that the bulls may be losing their grip on momentum.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1750 (median across firms), with Deutsche Bank at the upper bound (1.2500) and Citi at the lower bound (1.1000). FXStreet's bearish forecast toward 1.1200 aligns with the more pessimistic positions of firms like Citi and HSBC.
How firms align
Citi's target of 1.1300 for March suggests a bearish view, similar to the outlook highlighted in the FXStreet report. Conversely, firms such as Goldman and Commerzbank remain more optimistic, projecting targets of 1.1800 and 1.1900 respectively for March, which contrasts with the bearish sentiment from the headline.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show a notable downgrade in targets, particularly from Citi, which recently adjusted its March 2026 forecast to 1.1300. This shift reflects the wider market sentiment captured in our publications at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-10 and /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-12.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD poised for further declines toward 1.1200.
- 02Bears appear to control the technical momentum as market sentiment shifts.
- 03Key support levels to monitor around parity ahead of the next ECB meeting.
Market implications
Investors should keep an eye on the 1.1200 level as a potential target amidst the current bearish trend. Upcoming economic data releases and the ECB's policy outlook will be crucial in determining whether the EUR can stabilize above parity.
Risks to this view
A shift in ECB policy towards a more hawkish stance or unexpected economic data outperforming expectations could invalidate this bear outlook, potentially leading to a reversal of the EUR/USD trend.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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