U.S. nonfarm payrolls increase by 29,000 in September, less than expected; unemployment rises to 4.2%
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by a mere 29,000 in September, significantly trailing the forecast of 84,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. This underwhelming job growth raises concerns about the labor market's resilience and poses implications for future Fed policy decisions. The weaker-than-expected data may prompt investors to reconsider their views on interest rate hikes, especially in light of potential economic headwinds.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.075, with a range from 1.04 by BofA to 1.12 by Goldman. [PUBLISHER]'s view aligns more closely with the upper third — JPMorgan shares that framing at 1.10.
How firms align
JPMorgan currently maintains an aligned stance with a target of 1.10. In contrast, BofA's lower target of 1.04 reflects a more cautious outlook. For further details, refer to our internal reports on these firms.
What the data shows
This disappointing employment figure may lead to revisions in forecasts regarding Fed rate hikes. As we assess these developments, our recent analysis highlights that further deterioration in labor market indicators could paint a more bearish picture for growth projections. For deeper insights, see /research/employment_trends.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged only 29,000 vs. 84,000 expected.
- 02Unemployment climbs to 4.2%, raising recession concerns.
- 03Potential for Fed to reconsider rate hikes post-data.
- 04Weak data may impact sentiment toward USD assets.
Market implications
With uncertainty surrounding employment and Fed policy, the EUR/USD could encounter volatility. Key levels to monitor include 1.075 and 1.10. Upcoming Fed meetings and employment reports will be critical.
Risks to this view
If hiring rebounds significantly or inflation pressures compel the Fed to act aggressively, this could reverse current bearish sentiment. A strong jobs report in October would likely shift expectations dramatically.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY+GBP+Composite USD score: -0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story