U.S. trade representative Greer says deal with India not 'imminent' after Modi-Trump call
Negotiations for a U.S.-India trade deal, as outlined by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, are ongoing but not expected to conclude imminently. This positioning follows a recent phone conversation between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump, signaling an interest in maintaining dialogue. However, the absence of an immediate agreement suggests that key issues remain unresolved, which could impact market perceptions of U.S.-India trade dynamics moving forward.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.075 (median across 8 firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.12) and BofA at the lower (1.04). This outlook reflects a neutral stance amid fluctuating trade negotiations, particularly involving major economies like the U.S. and India.
How firms align
JPMorgan's view aligns with the headline, projecting a target of 1.10 with a tenor extending to March 2026, supporting the idea that while trade negotiations are progressing, the market remains cautious. On the contrary, BofA holds a more pessimistic stance with a target of 1.04, indicating potential challenges ahead.
What the data shows
Recent analytical reports highlight a potential stagnation in trade talks affecting broader market sentiment. See /research/trade_dynamics for insights into how these negotiations could influence currency movements.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Greer indicates an ongoing dialogue but expects slow progress on U.S.-India trade talks.
- 02Market sentiment remains neutral as uncertainties around trade agreements persist.
- 03Watch for market reactions surrounding upcoming economic indicators related to trade data.
Market implications
Investors should monitor the 1.075 level closely, as shifts in trade negotiation dynamics could lead to volatility in EUR/USD. Upcoming economic announcements may serve as catalysts for price movement or confirmation of current trends.
Risks to this view
A breakthrough in negotiations or unexpected policy shifts from either government may invalidate the current market view, potentially leading to re-pricing of associated currency pairs and impacting the consensus outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
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