Bank Of America Pound To Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD At 1.45 By End 2026 - Exchange Rates Org UK
Bank of America has put forth a bullish forecast for GBP/USD, predicting it will reach 1.45 by the end of 2026. This outlook suggests significant appreciation for the pound against the dollar amidst a backdrop of shifting economic parameters and central bank policies.
What the desk is arguing
The desk aligns with Bank of America's optimistic forecast, proposing that GBP/USD will experience notable upward momentum leading to the projected 1.45 by end-2026. The expectation is underpinned by anticipated improvements in the UK economy and a potential shift in Bank of England's policy stance to combat inflation, which could support the pound’s appreciation.
Supporting this outlook, the consensus target for GBP/USD across various firms shows a consistent upward trajectory, with targets generally between 1.3500 to 1.4000 for December 2026. The desk implicitly challenges the view that GBP/USD may stagnate around current levels due to geopolitical factors or ongoing inflation concerns in both the UK and the US, arguing instead for a more favorable economic outlook for the UK.
Where it sits in our coverage
In our current coverage, the consensus target for GBP/USD stands at 1.4000 by December 2026, with a range from 1.3300 to 1.4200 among different banks. This aligns closely with Bank of America’s projection, which suggests a sustained bullish sentiment towards the pound, although it's on the higher end compared to some firms’ projections.
Firms such as JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank provide slightly differing forecasts: - JPMorgan: 1.3600 - Deutsche Bank: 1.4200 - Morgan Stanley: 1.4700 This spectrum of targets highlights a general optimism towards the pound, reaffirming a favorable outlook that is supported by stronger projections from some key players.
How other firms see it
The overall market sentiment includes a mix of perspectives on GBP/USD. While firms like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank are aligned with the bullish outlook, having a forecast of 1.4700 and 1.4200 respectively for December 2026, there are firms that express a more conservative view.
- Goldman: 1.3600 - Barclays: 1.4100 These contrasting views illustrate the ongoing debate among analysts regarding the pound’s future trajectory, encapsulating a range of expectations influenced by macroeconomic factors and monetary policy shifts.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Bank of America forecasts GBP/USD to reach 1.45 by end-2026.
- 02Current consensus targets show expectations between 1.3500 and 1.4000.
- 03Several firms have optimistic projections for the pound, supporting a bullish sentiment.
Market implications
A bullish GBP/USD outlook signals confidence in the UK's economic recovery, potentially encouraging investment inflows. If Bank of America's projections hold, market participants may adjust their positions to align with expected currency strength, affecting trading strategies across G10 currencies.
Risks to this view
Risks to this bullish scenario include unexpected economic downturns, continuing inflation issues, or escalated geopolitical tensions that could undermine confidence in the pound. Additionally, the central banks' decisions could divert from the expected policy shifts, impacting currency valuations.
GBP/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2027 |
|---|---|---|
Goldman Sachs | Bullish | 1.3600 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.3445 |
Citi | Bearish | 1.2400 |
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Cross-firm research
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 0.73% Below Spot — Week of July 11, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3402 against a 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, leaving spot just 0.73% shy of consensus with a 0.23-figure dispersion range.
GBP/USD: Consensus Targets 1.35 but Morgan Stanley Sees 1.47
Cable trades at 1.3402, just 0.73% below the 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, but a 0.23 spread signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed rate path.
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 0.23 Spread — Week of July 10, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3402, just 0.73% below a 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, but a 0.23 dispersion signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed divergence trade.