Canadian dollar not getting a bump as Iran war winds down. Eyes on USMCA
USD/CAD is slightly lower today but the loonie isn't getting the same kind of lift that we're seeing in the Australian dollar as the risk trade ramps up today on the end of the war in Iran. The main reason for the sluggish CAD performance is the fall in crude oil prices. WTI is d
USD/CAD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
ING | Bullish | 1.33 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 1.36 |
Bank of America | Bullish | 1.35 |
All 25 desk targets for USD/CAD
Desk synthesis pending
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Cross-firm research
USD/CAD at 1.386 vs 1.35 Consensus: BoC-Fed Gap and Oil Drive the Gap
USD/CAD trades 2.69% above the 25-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling genuine disagreement on the BoC-Fed path.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3816, Median Target 1.35 — Week of August 23, 2026
USD/CAD trades 2.34% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the BoC-Fed gap.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: 1.3765 Spot vs 1.35 Target, Week of August 22, 2026
USD/CAD trades at 1.3765, nearly 2% above the 25-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.35, as BoC-Fed divergence and oil keep the pair under pressure.