Here is Trump's schedule in China today, Friday, May 15, 2026
The desk interprets President Trump's schedule in China today as a significant diplomatic engagement that could influence market sentiment towards the USD/CNY pair. Per the full note source, the series of meetings, including a bilateral tea meeting with President Xi Jinping, signals a potential thaw in US-China relations, which could have implications for trade and currency dynamics. Current positioning suggests traders are cautiously optimistic, with the consensus target for USD/CNY at 1.075, reflecting a moderate bullish outlook. However, the lack of immediate economic data releases means that market reactions will largely hinge on the outcomes of these high-profile meetings.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a pivotal moment for US-China relations, with President Trump's engagements potentially setting the tone for future economic interactions. The closed-press 'executive time' followed by a series of public engagements suggests a strategic approach to diplomacy that could resonate in FX markets.
The meetings scheduled throughout the day, particularly the bilateral tea meeting at 11:40 am local time, could yield insights into trade negotiations and tariffs, which are critical for the USD/CNY exchange rate. This context is crucial as traders assess the implications of these discussions on market sentiment.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/CNY stands at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firms contributing to this outlook include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which sits at the upper end of our consensus range, while bofa presents a more cautious stance at the lower bound. The desk's positioning reflects a more optimistic sentiment compared to the broader market consensus.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned in their bullish outlook on USD/CNY, anticipating a strengthening of the dollar against the yuan as diplomatic relations improve. Conversely, bofa and deutsche bank express a more bearish perspective, citing ongoing trade tensions as a limiting factor for the yuan's appreciation.
Traders should also monitor the EUR/USD trajectory, as it often mirrors broader dollar strength, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions on the USD's valuation. Additionally, the upcoming PBOC announcements could further influence market dynamics.
What the calendar says
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This is what I have for Trump today in China, Friday. 8:00 am Closed-press "executive time" (0000 GMT/ 2000 US Eastern time) 11:30 am Photo session with President Xi Jinping (0330/2330) 11:40 am Bilateral tea meeting (0340/2340) 12:15 pm Continued meeting and working lunch with President Xi (0415/0015) Afternoon Departure ceremony This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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