Intervention fears are capping the USD/JPY upside as traders await the key US data
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar has been supported since the last FOMC decision as the more hawkish than expected dot plot led to a quick repricing in interest rate expectations with traders increasing rate hike probabilities. There is now 32 bps of tightening priced in b
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bearish | 159.60 |
Bank of America | Bullish | 149.00 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 145.00 |
All 22 desk targets for USD/JPY
Desk synthesis pending
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Cross-firm research
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 158.17, Dec-26 Target 154.0 — Week of October 9, 2026
USD/JPY trades 2.71% above the 24-firm Dec-26 consensus of 154.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
USD/JPY at 158.32: Consensus Targets 154.0, Dispersion Hits 25.5 Figures
Spot USD/JPY trades 2.81% above the 24-firm Dec-26 consensus of 154.0, with a 25.5-figure dispersion exposing deep disagreement on the BoJ rate path.
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 158.09, Median Target 154.0 — Week of October 7, 2026
USD/JPY trades 2.65% above the 24-firm Dec-26 median of 154.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.