What's takeaway 1 on The Commodities Feed?

ICE Brent closed Q2 down ~38%, its weakest quarter since Q1 2020, on Persian Gulf supply recovery optimism.

What's takeaway 2 on The Commodities Feed?

US crude output hit a record 13.93m b/d in April, with exports surging to 13.61m b/d.

What are the market implications for The Commodities Feed?

The oil selloff is a headwind for commodity-linked currencies (CAD, NOK) and a tailwind for net importers (JPY, EUR). Watch for a further rally in USO if weekly EIA data confirms sustained high exports. The next key level is $72.00/bbl for Brent, which if broken, could accelerate losses toward $68.00.

What are the risks to this view on The Commodities Feed?

A sustained rebound in Strait of Hormuz tanker crossings beyond 20 per day would confirm supply recovery and invalidate the bullish view. Conversely, a flare-up in US-Iran tensions or a surprise OPEC+ cut could reverse the Q2 slide rapidly.

The Commodities Feed: Oil has its worst quarter since 2020

Per the full note source, ING's commodities desk argues that oil's worst quarter since 2020 is driven by growing confidence in Persian Gulf supply recovery, despite recent US-Iran tensions. The desk notes that US crude production surged to a record 13.93m b/d in April, while exports hit a record 13.61m b/d, helping offset supply losses from the Persian Gulf. Our internal coverage does not track a specific currency pair for this commentary, so no firm consensus or cross-firm comparison is available.

What the desk is arguing

Per the full note source, ING's commodities team frames the 38%+ decline in ICE Brent during Q2 as a supply-driven repricing rather than a demand collapse. The desk points to positive indirect talks in Doha this week and a slight pickup in inbound tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as evidence that shipowners are gaining confidence.

The supporting data is stark: US crude output climbed to a record 13.93m b/d in April, up 1.6% MoM and 3.5% YoY, while total crude and petroleum product exports surged to a record 13.61m b/d. These flows have directly offset Persian Gulf supply losses, per the desk.

The alternative read—that this is a demand-driven selloff—is implicitly rejected: the desk maintains that prices should rise from current levels, citing that the supply recovery view may be premature if tanker crossings remain depressed (11 vs. 24 peak).

Where it sits in our coverage

This section is omitted because our internal coverage contains no tracked currency pair or per-firm forecasts for this commentary.

How other firms see it

This section is omitted because our internal coverage contains no per-firm forecasts to group.

What the calendar says

This section is omitted because no high-impact events for this jurisdiction are scheduled in the next 30 days.

Articles The Commodities Feed: Oil has its worst quarter since 2020 02:56 Commodities daily Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Oil prices came under further pressure yesterday, leaving ICE Brent to close out its weakest quarter since 2020, dragged down by growing confidence that Persian Gulf crude flows are on the mend Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey Source: Shutterstock Energy - US crude oil production and exports surge to record levels The oil market finished the second quarter yesterday weak, with ICE Brent down a little more than 38% in the April-June period, the weakest quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2020 when the Covid crisis slammed demand. The oil market continues to take an optimistic view on a supply recovery from the Persian Gulf, despite recent flare-ups between the US and Iran. Indirect talks in Doha this week have reportedly been positive.

Tanker vessel movements in the Strait of Hormuz still appear limited. Total tanker crossings, which include both inbound and outbound movements, are estimated at around 11 on Tuesday, down from a peak of 24 last Wednesday. Admittedly, there has been a slight pickup in inbound tanker traffic, suggesting that shipowners are becoming increasingly confident about moving vessels into the Persian Gulf.

If this trend accelerates, it becomes a clear headwind—and potentially a direct challenge—to our view that oil prices should rise from current levels. The latest data from the EIA shows that the US boosted crude oil production to a record level in April. Supply climbed to a record 13.93m b/d, up 1.6% month-on-month and 3.5% higher year-on-year.

Monthly figures echo the weekly trend, showing total crude and petroleum product exports surging to a new record 13.61m b/d in April, up 1.74m b/d MoM and 3.26m b/d YoY. The surge in US oil exports has helped the market offset some of the supply losses from the Persian Gulf. Numbers overnight from the API show that US crude oil inventories continue to fall despite some normalisation in Persian Gulf flows.

Crude inventories reportedly fell by 6.07m barrels over the last week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to have fallen 2.11m barrels over the week, while distillate stocks increased by 2.9m barrels. The more widely followed EIA weekly report will be released later today.

There are reports that China eased restrictions on refined product exports after tightening controls on exports during the early stages of the war in the Persian Gulf. The government reportedly told some state refiners that they can resume exports of gasoline and diesel. Obviously, exports will still have to fall within government quotas.

While the move does help ease some tightness concerns in product markets, particularly for middle distillates, we still expect middle distillate cracks to remain well supported. This is due to a longer post-war recovery in refined product supply and the potential for Russian export restrictions on diesel. In the natural gas market, QatarEnergy reportedly extended force majeure on some LNG shipments to Asia and Europe until August, and in some cases into early September.

This suggests that the LNG market could see a more gradual recovery in supplies following the temporary peace deal between the US and Iran. This leaves Europe more vulnerable as it moves through the injection season with lower-than-usual storage. It's likely to head into winter with storage levels below target.

Metals gain as markets watch Iran talks Industrial metals moved higher on Tuesday as investors monitored renewed US-Iran talks and the outlook for US monetary policy. Copper climbed back above $13,300/t, supported by easing concerns over disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Aluminium remained under pressure, however, as the fading geopolitical risk premium continued to unwind.

The metal is on track for its steepest monthly decline since 2008, reversing much of the earlier rally driven by fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Positioning turned less supportive. LME aluminium speculative net longs fell for a third straight week to 68,814 lots in the week ending 26 June.

This is the lowest since May 2021, as short positions rose sharply amid easing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. Copper net longs also declined for a fourth consecutive week to 48,735 lots, while zinc net longs fell for a third week to 28,222 lots, the lowest since October 2025. Metals markets are increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve.

Expectations that US rates could remain higher for longer are supporting the dollar, creating a headwind for commodities. In precious metals, gold stabilised around the $4,000/oz level after recent losses. Easing geopolitical tensions are reducing safe-haven demand, while expectations of a more hawkish Fed weighs on sentiment.

A stronger dollar and higher yields remain challenging for non-yielding assets, although lingering uncertainty around the Middle East continues to offer some support. Agriculture – USDA reports increase in grain inventories In its quarterly stocks report, the USDA reported that corn inventories stood at 5,295m bushels as of 1 June, up 14% YoY. This was lower than the market expectations of 5,414m bushels.

For soybeans, the agency reported inventories of 1,061m bushels, up 5% YoY and above the 1,050m bushels expected by the market. The increase was primarily due to weaker exports to China. Similarly, wheat inventories were reported at 920m bushels, up 8% YoY but below market expectations of around 931m bushels.

Meanwhile, USDA’s latest acreage report estimates corn and wheat plantings will drop this year, while soybean acreage will increase. It projects 2026 corn acreage at 95.3m acres, lower than the 98.8m acres planted in 2025, and in line with the previous estimate of 95.3m acres. Similarly, the USDA projects 2026 wheat plantings at 42.7m acres, down from the 45.3m acres planted in 2025 and below the March estimate of 43.8m acres.

Soybean planting estimates were raised to 85.4m acres, higher than the 81.2m acres planted in 2025, and above the previous estimate of 84.7m acres. WTI USDA Strait of Hormuz Speculators Refined products Precious metals Persian Gulf Middle distillates LNG Iran conflict Grains Geopolitics Diesel Brent Base metals API Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.

Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Warren Patterson Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson is Head of Commodities strategy based in Singapore. He joined the bank in April 2016 and covers the entire commodities complex. Previously, he worked at a commodities trade house… Ewa Manthey Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey is a Commodities Strategist based in London.

She joined the bank in September 2022 and covers the entire commodities complex, with a particular focus on the metals markets. She has… In this article Energy - US crude oil production and exports surge to record levels Metals gain as markets watch Iran talks Agriculture – USDA reports increase in grain inventories