Webinar reminder: Directional Economics CEE – who breaks, who bends on Energy Shock 2.0
ING's note source highlights the asymmetric vulnerability of CEE currencies to a second wave of energy price spikes, arguing that the Czech koruna and Romanian leu are structurally better positioned than the Hungarian forint or Polish zloty. The desk frames the Energy Shock 2.0 as a relative-value play within the region, where fiscal space and energy import intensity determine currency resilience. With no CEE central bank meetings or high-impact data in the next 30 days, the trade relies on exogenous energy supply shocks rather than domestic catalysts. Consensus targets from our coverage align with this bifurcation, though the degree of divergence remains contested.
What the desk is arguing
ING contends that the second wave of the energy crisis will hit CEE currencies unevenly, with the forint and zloty more exposed due to higher energy import dependence and tighter fiscal buffers. The desk frames the Czech koruna and Romanian leu as relative winners, citing lower pass-through from energy to core inflation and more credible central bank responses. Per the full note source, the bearish case hinges on a cold winter or renewed supply disruptions, which would force Hungary and Poland to widen fiscal deficits or accept deeper currency depreciation.
Supporting evidence includes the historical beta of EUR/HUF to TTF gas prices, which has averaged 0.8 over the past two winters, versus 0.3 for EUR/CZK. ING also flags the divergence in central bank communication: the National Bank of Hungary has been reluctant to hike rates further, while the Czech National Bank's hawkish pivot provides a cushion. The desk rejects the alternative read that energy prices have peaked structurally, arguing that LNG supply constraints and Chinese demand recovery keep upside risk elevated.
What the calendar says
There are no high-impact events scheduled for CEE currencies in the next 30 days, meaning the trade is driven purely by exogenous energy supply shocks. The next key catalyst is the European gas storage fill season, with EU inventories currently at 85% of capacity versus the 5-year average of 78%. Any early cold snap or supply outage could force a repricing of winter risk premia.
Key takeaways
- 01ING sees CEE currencies bifurcating on energy resilience: CZK and RON preferred over HUF and PLN.
- 02The forint and zloty are exposed to renewed energy price spikes due to higher import dependence and weaker fiscal buffers.
- 03No near-term domestic catalysts; trade relies on exogenous energy supply shocks.
- 04Relative-value opportunity: short EUR/HUF vs long EUR/CZK within the region.
Market implications
Watch TTF natural gas futures for a break above €50/MWh – a move to €60 would likely trigger 2-3% downside in EUR/HUF and EUR/PLN. Meanwhile, EUR/CZK should remain range-bound between 24.50 and 25.00, with the CNB's hawkish stance limiting depreciation. Positioning data shows CEE short positions are elevated, adding to the risk of sharp moves if energy prices surge.
Risks to this view
A warm European winter or a rapid ramp-up in LNG imports would collapse energy prices, invalidating the bearish HUF/PLN call. Additionally, if the EU imposes a windfall profit tax on energy firms that boosts fiscal revenues in Hungary and Poland, the twin-deficit risk would recede. Alternatively, a CNB pivot to dovish would erode the CZK resilience narrative.
Sources & References
How we cover this story