Across the Pond: Strait Talk - Trump, Iran, and the global ripples
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Geopolitical crises have generally caused only fleeting market setbacks. But could the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran be among a handful of historic exceptions? Disruptions to oil and gas flows out of the Middle East could be especially damaging for Europe, where reliance on impor
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4 itemsGlobal Commodities: Oil and Gas Rocked by Conflict
Lead — The desk is positioning for heightened volatility in energy markets following recent military actions involving Israel and the US against Iran, which have severely disrupted oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, commercial traffic has plummeted, with production shut-ins anticipated in the Gulf, raising concerns about supply shortages. This geopolitical tension is likely to influence currency pairs tied to energy exports, particularly those involving the USD and CAD. Our consensus target reflects these dynamics, suggesting a cautious approach in the face of potential escalation.
THINK Ahead: Deal done, hikes axed? Not exactly
Across the Pond: A new normal after the ceasefire?
The Commodities Feed: Ceasefire optimism weighs on energy markets
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