Analysts continue to be divided on the Japanese yen outlook
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Société Générale | Bullish | 150.00 |
Scotiabank | Bullish | 140.00 |
Commerzbank | Bearish | 160.00 |
From the original
For the better part of a week already, USD/JPY continues to hover around 158.50 to 159.50 but mostly weaving in and around the 159.00 mark. It is the same case again today, despite a more tepid dollar mood to start the new week. As much as the dollar may be seeing some signs of w
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4 itemsUSD/JPY nudges back up towards 158.00 mark as dollar holds firmer on the week
The USD/JPY pair is testing the critical 158.00 level as the dollar remains resilient amid ongoing bearish sentiment for the yen. Per the full note from Justin Low at investinglive.com, the Ministry of Finance's (MOF) recent intervention efforts have yet to stabilize the currency, raising questions about their willingness to engage further. The current market dynamics suggest that traders are increasingly willing to challenge the MOF's thresholds, especially with external pressures like rising oil prices exacerbating the yen's weakness. This situation is compounded by the lack of significant intervention during low liquidity periods, which may have diminished the effectiveness of previous actions.
FX Daily: Japan’s 2026 FX intervention campaign begins
The desk views the recent intervention by Japanese authorities in the USD/JPY market as the beginning of a sustained effort to maintain the exchange rate below 160. Per the full note from ing-think, this intervention reflects a broader strategy amidst ongoing stagflationary pressures, which markets seem to be overlooking. The USD/JPY pair's stability is crucial as it impacts broader market sentiment and positioning. With no high-impact events on the calendar in the next 30 days, traders should focus on the implications of this intervention on future dollar strength.