China is Winning
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China's export sector has emerged massively strengthened from the US tariff stand-off
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China’s trade growth surged amid strong external demand
Per the full note [source], China's July trade data showed exports surging 23.9% year-on-year, driven by strong external demand across ships, autos, and tech, with the trade surplus widening to USD 112.5bn. The desk highlights a continued shift toward higher value-added exports, with semiconductor exports up 116.6% and ship exports rising 92.4%. While the print was broadly in line with expectations, ING's own forecast was higher at 28.1%, suggesting some downside surprise. The US remains a key destination with a fourth straight month of double-digit growth, but escalating tech-related trade frictions pose a risk ahead of President Xi's US visit on 24 September. This calendar event will be crucial in determining whether export momentum persists into Q4, with implications for USD/CNY and broader Asian FX.