Citi: GBP/USD To Hit 1.24 By 2027 - Forex Factory

What the desk is arguing

Citi's expectation for GBP/USD to reach 1.24 by 2027 suggests a protracted adjustment period for the pound amid ongoing economic uncertainties. This perspective implies that while short-term forecasts among banks are relatively optimistic, longer-term projections reflect skepticism regarding the UK's growth trajectory and monetary policy developments.

The desk positions itself to evaluate Citi's view critically, noting that all other major banks surveyed expect GBP/USD to remain above 1.3 through the next 18 months. This divergence could indicate a significant outlook shift, particularly if economic conditions influence a reevaluation of growth prospects and interest rate expectations in the UK.

Where it sits in our coverage

Current market consensus anticipates GBP/USD to reach a median target of 1.3500 by March 2026, with a range between 1.3300 and 1.3800 across various firms. This places the short-term outlook significantly higher than Citi's 2027 forecast, which infers stalled recovery or potential declines in the GBP beyond the next few years.

Several firms have set their December 2026 targets in the following range, reflecting the more optimistic sentiment:

• JPMorgan: 1.3600
• Barclays: 1.4100
• Deutsche Bank: 1.4200

How other firms see it

The broader bank consensus largely contradicts Citi’s bearish long-term forecast. Firms seem confident in the resilience of the pound against the dollar, with most expecting gradual gains through 2026.

• Morgan Stanley has set a Dec-26 target of 1.4700, suggesting a robust recovery for GBP.
• Goldman Sachs is less optimistic but still sees GBP/USD stabilizing at 1.3600.
• MUFJ and Deutsche Bank also exhibit more bullish targets, with respective forecasts of 1.4000 and 1.4200 for December 2026.