Citi: GBP/USD To Hit 1.24 By 2027 - Forex Factory

What the desk is arguing

Citi is projecting that GBP/USD will decline to 1.24 by 2027, a forecast that contrasts with the prevailing market optimism surrounding the currency pair. Their outlook appears to be rooted in caution over potential economic and monetary policy challenges that the UK may face in the coming years.

This view diverges sharply from a broader market consensus that anticipates GBP/USD trading higher. Currently, the median target across surveyed firms for GBP/USD is around 1.3500 by March 2026, suggesting a belief in resilience within the UK economy and confidence in potential policy shifts which could boost the Pound versus the Dollar.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus for GBP/USD stands at 1.3500 for March 2026, spanning a range of 1.3300 to 1.3800 among surveyed firms. This is in stark contrast to Citi's prediction, highlighting significant divergence in outlooks and a consensus leaning towards a stronger GBP in the near term.

Specifically, several firms have set targets that reflect this optimism:

• JPMorgan: 1.3700 (Mar26)
• Goldman: 1.3300 (Mar26)
• Morgan Stanley: 1.3800 (Mar26)

How other firms see it

Other firms appear to have a more optimistic view of the GBP/USD outlook compared to Citi's bearish stance. Bases on their recent updates, firms like Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays project values around 1.3500 or higher for the near term, indicating an expectation of continued strength in GBP.

• Aligned with the bullish outlook:
• Morgan Stanley: 1.3800 (Mar26)
• Barclays: 1.3500 (Mar26)

However, this contrasts with Citi's long-term forecast, suggesting that while sentiment is currently bullish, there remains the risk of significant challenges ahead that could temper expectations.