CITIC Securities sees Fed on hold all year as Warsh faces political & inflation crosswinds
From the original
CITIC's hold call pushes against the market's current lean toward an October hike, creating a divergence worth monitoring as the US-Iran MOU beds in and energy-driven inflation pressure eases. If the geopolitical premium in oil continues to unwind, the inflation case for hiking w
Related speeches
4 itemsFX Daily: Risk assets rally, central banks in focus
The desk envisions a bullish outlook for risk assets driven by geopolitical developments, coupled with a vital week for central bank policy. As the confirmation of a ceasefire between the US and Iran led to a rally in risk assets globally, the consequent cooling in energy prices and softening of the dollar suggests a short-term bullish bias. Per the full note by ing-think, the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday will play a critical role in tempering potential dollar downside, as markets anticipate a firm stance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. With seven G10 central banks gathering this week, including notable events in the US, UK, and beyond, we foresee heightened focus on inflation management strategies, particularly following recent inflationary trends.
Fed's Williams: Trims his GDP forecast and boosts inflation view
The desk interprets New York Fed President John Williams' recent comments as a signal of increased caution regarding U.S. economic growth and inflation dynamics. Per the full note [source], Williams has trimmed his GDP forecast while raising his inflation outlook, reflecting heightened uncertainty in the economic landscape. This nuanced shift suggests a more dovish stance on growth while acknowledging inflationary pressures, particularly from supply chain disruptions and energy costs. As such, traders should remain vigilant about potential market volatility stemming from these evolving economic indicators.