Deutsche Bank Pound To Euro Forecast: GBP/EUR To Slide To 1.11 In Six Months - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

Deutsche Bank anticipates that the GBP/EUR pair will slide to 1.11 over the next six months, indicating a significant depreciation of the British Pound. This forecast highlights concerns regarding the UK's economic recovery post-Brexit, alongside the Eurozone's relatively more robust economic position.

The bank's analysis suggests that continued tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank could widen the interest rate differential in favor of the Euro, further pressuring the Pound. As such, the expectation is that market sentiment may shift towards the Euro as investors seek more stable returns in a rapidly changing economic landscape.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for GBP/EUR stands at 1.075, with a projected range between 1.04 and 1.12. Deutsche Bank's bearish forecast aligns with a more cautious outlook for GBP, showing divergence from our consensus, which sees an initial stabilization before any potential declines.

• JPMorgan has set a target of 1.10 for March 2026, indicating a slightly more optimistic view than Deutsche Bank.
• Barclays predicts a target of 1.08, which is in closer alignment with Deutsche's expectations than our consensus.
• Goldman Sachs maintains a lower target of 1.05 based on its economic projections for the UK and Eurozone.

How other firms see it

Firms in the market show a mixed perception of the GBP/EUR currency pair. While Deutsche Bank expresses a bearish sentiment, other institutions like JPMorgan and Barclays have slightly more optimistic targets that suggest potential resilience in the Pound.

• JP Morgan: Aligned with a target of 1.10.
• Barclays: Aligned, targeting 1.08.
• Goldman Sachs: Contrary, targeting 1.05.