Deutsche Bank US Dollar To Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Seen Falling To 150 By End-2026 - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

The desk interprets Deutsche Bank's projection of USD/JPY reaching 150 by the end of 2026 as a significant signal for traders to consider, given the current market dynamics. Per the full note source, this target reflects a growing consensus around the yen's strengthening as U.S. interest rates potentially peak and the BoJ's policies evolve.

Supporting evidence from the consensus indicates a strong expectation of the dollar's weakening path, aligning with Deutsche Bank's specification to anticipate ongoing pressures on USD/JPY. Current forecasts across firms, such as Goldman projecting a December 2026 target of 148, reinforce this outlook by suggesting broader market sentiment is coalescing around a stronger yen moving forward.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus targets for USD/JPY are 154.5 for March 2026, 152 for June 2026, and 148 for December 2026, with the range indicating substantial divergence among firms. Specific targets from notable firms include: - Goldman: Dec26 at 148.00 - MorganStanley: Dec26 at 140.00 - DeutscheBank: Dec26 at 143.00

This bearish outlook from Deutsche Bank closely aligns with a significant number of firms forecasting declines, particularly as we approach the close of 2026. The desk's call for USD/JPY to reach 150 is on the more aggressive side of the range, as several firms are predicting values around or beyond this point well into 2026.

How other firms see it

Firms such as Goldman and BNPParibas are aligned with the bearish view on USD/JPY, setting December 2026 targets in the range from 148 to 152, highlighting the consensus around yen strength. Conversely, MorganStanley provides a more pessimistic outlook for the dollar's resilience, projecting targets further out at 140 for the same period, indicating significant divergence.

Watch related pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/JPY for potential reflections of broader market sentiment, particularly as expectations of BoJ policy transitions begin to form and affect investor positioning.