Bank of Japan (BoJ) | FX Bank Forecast

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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 37 institutional desks. No promotion.

BoJ & the JPY: common questions

Date	Event	Country	Impact	Consensus	Previous
2026-09-24	S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)	JP	Med	52.7 Points	52.5 Points
2026-09-24	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep)	JP	Med	55 Points	54.9 Points
2026-09-25	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	JP	Med	—	120.4 K
2026-09-27	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes	JP	Med	—	—
2026-09-29	Industrial Production MoM (Aug)	JP	Med	0.3%	-0.2%
2026-09-29	Retail Sales YoY (Aug)	JP	Med	—	4%
2026-09-30	Housing Starts YoY (Aug)	JP	Med	—	8.2%
2026-09-30	BoJ Summary of Opinions	JP	Med	—	—

When is the next BoJ meeting?

The next Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision is scheduled for Oct 29-30. Because Bank of Japan sets monetary policy for the JPY, its rate decisions and forward guidance are among the most important scheduled catalysts for JPY exchange rates, and sell-side FX desks reposition their JPY forecasts around each meeting. FX Bank Forecast tracks how the major investment banks' JPY targets shift before and after BoJ decisions, so you can see whether the consensus is moving with the policy path or diverging from it. Watching the cross-bank reaction to each meeting is often a more durable signal than any single house call.

What is the BoJ's current policy stance?

Bank of Japan's current policy lean reads as neutral, based on its most recent decisions and guidance. A more hawkish stance — biased toward higher-for-longer rates — tends to be supportive of the JPY, while a dovish, easing-biased stance tends to weigh on it, though the market reaction always depends on what was already priced in. What matters for JPY forecasting is less the stance in isolation than how it compares with what investment banks expected and how it shifts the projected rate path. FX Bank Forecast aggregates how 37 major banks read the BoJ path and translates it into where the JPY consensus and its dispersion sit.

How does the BoJ affect the JPY?

Monetary-policy expectations are one of the dominant drivers of currency moves, so Bank of Japan's decisions — and, just as importantly, how they compare with other central banks — feed directly into where strategists set their JPY targets. Relative policy paths (the BoJ versus the Fed and other majors), the pace of cuts or hikes, and the tone of guidance are the channels through which BoJ actions transmit into the JPY. FX Bank Forecast compares the published JPY forecasts of 37 major investment banks side by side and shows how that consensus — and the spread of views around it — shifts as the BoJ outlook evolves.

See the JPY bank consensus and how it shifts around BoJ decisions

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Bank of Japan

Meeting Schedule (2026)

Policy-rate trajectory

Upcoming Macro Calendar — Japan

Bank Consensus on JPY

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BoJ & the JPY: common questions

When is the next BoJ meeting?

What is the BoJ's current policy stance?

How does the BoJ affect the JPY?