ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – March 2026

What the desk is arguing

The desk interprets the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey as a clear signal of increasing inflation concerns among consumers, which could prompt the ECB to adopt a more hawkish stance. The notable rise in median inflation expectations, particularly the jump to 4.0% for the next 12 months, indicates that consumers are bracing for higher prices, a sentiment that could pressure the central bank to act decisively.

Additionally, the survey revealed a more negative outlook for economic growth, with expectations dropping to -2.1% for the next 12 months. This juxtaposition of rising inflation expectations against a backdrop of declining growth could complicate the ECB's policy framework, as it navigates the delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic recovery.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.08 (Mar26)

This view aligns with jpmorgan, which anticipates a stronger euro as inflation pressures mount, while bofa holds a more bearish stance, reflecting concerns over economic growth. The desk's target sits near the upper bound of the consensus range, indicating a more optimistic outlook on the euro's strength relative to peers.

How other firms see it

Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned in their expectations of a stronger euro amid rising inflation, suggesting a potential shift towards a tighter monetary policy from the ECB. Conversely, bofa remains cautious, projecting a weaker euro due to anticipated economic headwinds.

Traders should also keep an eye on the EUR/GBP dynamics, as shifts in ECB policy could have spillover effects on the Bank of England's decisions, particularly with inflationary pressures being a common theme across both central banks.

What the calendar says

With the CPI release on June 2 looming, traders should prepare for potential volatility in EUR/USD as the market digests the implications of consumer inflation expectations. This event could serve as a catalyst for further adjustments in market positioning ahead of the ECB's next policy meeting.