ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2025

ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – March 2026

The desk views the recent ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results as a significant indicator of rising inflationary pressures within the Eurozone. Per the full note [source], median inflation expectations for the next 12 months surged to 4.0%, up from 2.5% in February, suggesting a shift in consumer sentiment that could influence ECB policy decisions. With the upcoming CPI release on June 2, traders should closely monitor how these consumer expectations might affect the central bank's stance. Our consensus target for EUR/USD remains at 1.075, reflecting a cautious outlook amidst these inflationary signals.

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2026

The desk anticipates a cautious outlook for the eurozone economy, driven by upward revisions in inflation expectations and downward adjustments in GDP growth forecasts. Per the full note from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, headline inflation expectations for 2026 have risen to 2.7%, while real GDP growth has been revised down to 1.0%. This divergence suggests a tightening of monetary policy may be on the horizon, especially with the ECB's next macroeconomic projections due on June 11, 2026.

NY Fed Survey of consumer expectations:1Y inflation higher @ 3.6% vs 3.4%. 5Y steady at 3%

The desk interprets the latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations as a signal of rising inflationary pressures, particularly with one-year-ahead inflation expectations increasing to 3.6% from 3.4% in March. This uptick suggests that consumers are becoming more concerned about short-term inflation, which could influence monetary policy decisions. Per the full note [source], the unchanged five-year inflation expectations at 3.0% indicate a potential stabilization in long-term inflation outlooks, but the mixed signals on consumer finances and credit access could complicate this picture. Overall, the data reflects a cautious consumer sentiment that may impact central bank strategies moving forward.

ECB hikes rates, as expected