ECB's de Guindos says current shock is causing lower economic growth and higher inflation
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Full report here De Guindos characterized the current situation as a global supply shock that will ultimately lead to a combination of lower economic growth and higher inflation. He said that while the overall net impact is inflationary, the resulting economic slowdown is already
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ECB policymaker de Guindos says comparison to energy price shock in 2021-22 is not right
The desk interprets ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos' recent comments as a signal of cautious optimism regarding inflation risks, suggesting that the central bank is better positioned to respond than in previous energy shocks. Per the full note [source], de Guindos emphasized the need for patience and clarity in light of geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Iran, which could impact growth indicators. This perspective aligns with a broader sentiment that the ECB will act prudently while monitoring economic data, particularly as inflation pressures appear less acute than in 2021-22. The consensus view among analysts indicates a target range for EUR/USD around 1.04 to 1.12, with our desk leaning towards the upper end of this spectrum.