ECB's Lagarde: Recent data points to some improvement in economic activity.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UBS | Bullish | 1.1600 |
Scotiabank | Bearish | 1.0900 |
MUFG | Neutral | 1.1200 |
From the original
To watch the press conference CLICK HERE . The EURUSD is trading at 1.1379 at the start of the press conference. Recent data points to some improvement in economic activity. Activity and services partly recovered. Digital services robust, partly on AI. Firms, households expected
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4 itemsFX Daily: No doves in Sintra
The desk anticipates a hawkish tone from ECB officials at the annual Sintra forum, reinforcing expectations of an interest rate hike this year. Per the full note from the research team at ING, ECB President Christine Lagarde's opening remarks have set a constructive tone, likely echoed by other speakers. Today's US data, particularly an expectation of a stronger consumer confidence print at 97.5, may further support the dollar as overall bullish momentum depreciates. With the current EUR/USD spot at 1.1700, traders should be aware of how market sentiment could shift based on further ECB communications and upcoming economic data.
UBS Morning audio comment: Dealing with the decidedly dull
Lead — The desk views the recent central bank decisions and economic data releases as largely uninspiring, with the notable exception being Christine Lagarde's exit. Per the full note [source], this period of central bank inertia leaves traders searching for catalysts, particularly following Lagarde's decision and the ongoing low-growth environment in Europe. Current inflation metrics may be skewed by rising energy costs, with important GDP figures due that illustrate the contrasting economic dynamics between Europe and the US. The market seems to favor stable consumption trends, particularly among younger demographics, as noted by the commentary on shifting spending habits towards consumption and gambling rather than saving.
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