EUR/USD close to a major breakout as traders await the ECB decision, US-Iran developments
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bearish | 1.1200 |
ANZ | Bearish | 1.1400 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.1565 |
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FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar started to regain ground in recent days as the prolonged US-Iran conflict and surging oil prices trumped the hopes for a quick de-escalation. The situation in the Middle East is getting even worse as the Houthis started to disrupt the Bab e
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4 itemsEUR/USD extends the consolidation amid widely expected ECB hikes, US-Iran stalemate
Lead — The EUR/USD pair remains in a consolidation phase as traders await clearer signals from both the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Per the full note from Giuseppe Dellamotta, the US dollar has strengthened slightly amid geopolitical tensions and higher-than-expected inflation data, while the euro faces pressure despite anticipated ECB rate hikes. The market is pricing in an 87% probability of a June rate hike from the ECB, but the desk sees limited room for the euro to rally based solely on interest rate expectations. Upcoming US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data will be crucial in shaping market sentiment.