CEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and regional inflation data
The Polish economy is expected to show signs of slowing growth as key data is set to be released next week. Per the full note from ing-think, the third-quarter GDP flash estimate is projected to moderate to 3.4% YoY from 4.1% YoY in the previous quarter. Additionally, inflation figures and the current account data will provide critical insights into the economic landscape in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). With potential implications for monetary policy, traders should monitor these updates closely.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that Poland's economic momentum is set to wane, with increased fuel prices constraining household spending. According to ing-think, GDP growth is anticipated to decline to 3.4% YoY, underscoring a notable shift in consumption habits.
Further compounding this narrative is the expected rise in headline inflation, which may stabilize at the top of the central bank's target range, suggesting that the National Bank of Poland is justified in taking a patient stance on interest rate adjustments. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is projected to drop below 3% YoY, marking the first retreat since March.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the Polish zloty (PLN) against the euro (EUR) is set at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 to 1.12. Notable banks providing forecasts include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view is consistent with jpmorgan's more aggressive outlook while diverging from bofa's bearish stance. Currently, our target remains aligned with broader expectations around softening growth in the region.
How other firms see it
Analysts from jpmorgan and deutschebank are broadly aligned with our view that the Polish economy is headed for slower growth, albeit they remain optimistic on structural improvements. Conversely, bofa emphasizes the potential risks of a sharper downturn, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Traders should keep an eye on the EUR/PLN pair in light of these developments, particularly with the central bank's stance on inflation and growth playing a pivotal role in shaping monetary policy decisions going forward.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Poland's GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.4% YoY in Q3.
- 02Core inflation may fall below 3% YoY, signaling potential room for stable policy.
- 03The current account deficit is projected to widen to 1.5% of GDP.
- 04Fuel price increases are likely constraining household consumption.
Market implications
Traders should watch for significant movements in the PLN, particularly against the EUR, as these macroeconomic indicators are released. A maintained GDP growth around 3.4% may stabilize sentiments, while inflation dynamics could influence monetary policy.
Risks to this view
A sharper than expected contraction in GDP or a spike in inflation could prompt the National Bank of Poland to alter its current policy stance. Moreover, unexpected global economic shifts could also derail the projections outlined here.
Articles CEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and regional inflation data Published 11:45 Translate Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Poland will release third-quarter GDP, final inflation and current account data next week, while Hungary publishes September inflation figures Adam Antoniak and Peter Virovacz Polish GDP growth looks set to lose some momentum Poland: GDP, inflation and current account data due on Friday Friday brings the release of the 3Q26 GDP flash estimate, final October CPI and September current account data. According to our estimates, GDP growth moderated to 3.4% YoY from 4.1% YoY in 2Q26. Although the GDP breakdown will not be published until the end of the month, we forecast that the slowdown in economic growth reflected softer consumption, as higher fuel prices bit into households’ spending power.
We also expect a negative contribution from net exports, compared with a positive contribution in 2Q26. Investment activity most likely remained buoyant. The final October CPI reading should confirm that headline inflation stood at the upper bound of the range around the central bank’s 2.5% target (+/- 1 percentage point).
More important than the headline figure, however, is the composition of price growth. We estimate that core inflation excluding food and energy prices moderated to below 3% YoY for the first time since March this year. This supports the National Bank of Poland’s patient approach to adjusting monetary policy.
The current account deficit probably widened to 1.5% of GDP on a 12-month rolling basis after September, from 1.4% of GDP after August. We forecast a September deficit of €2380mn, compared with a negative gap of €932mn in September last year. Foreign trade continued to expand at a double-digit pace for the fourth consecutive month, with exports of goods rising by nearly 12% YoY (in € terms) and imports of goods up by nearly 15% YoY.
If official data confirm our estimates, this would imply that net exports probably made a negative contribution to GDP growth. Hungary: September inflation likely to have risen on fuel prices and clothing The spotlight will be on inflation in Hungary next week, with September data due on Tuesday. We are still waiting for the second-round effects to show up in the data, and we believe the waiting game will continue.
We expect monthly inflation of 0.4% in September, driven mainly by fuel prices and clothing, with the latter largely reflecting seasonal factors. Services inflation is likely to remain muted on a monthly basis, providing some comfort for monetary policy, while core inflation should remain broadly stable at around 2% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, the interest rate outlook remains driven primarily by geopolitics rather than domestic factors.
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