Euro To Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Slips As Rabobank Maintains Choppy 2026 Outlook - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

The desk posits that the EUR/USD will experience significant fluctuations as Rabobank maintains a choppy outlook for 2026. Per the full note from Exchange Rates Org UK, this volatility is underscored by recent movements in the currency pair, which has seen a decline amidst broader economic uncertainties.

Supporting this view, the latest positioning data indicates a cautious sentiment among traders, with many adjusting their strategies in response to potential shifts in European Central Bank (ECB) policy. The current trading level reflects these dynamics, with the euro struggling against the dollar as market participants weigh the implications of upcoming economic indicators.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus target for the EUR/USD stands at 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notably, jpmorgan has set a target of 1.10 for March 2026, while bofa is more bearish with a target of 1.04 for the same tenor.

This perspective aligns with the broader market sentiment, as our target is positioned centrally within the spread established by other firms. The desk's view reflects a cautious optimism, suggesting that while volatility is expected, there is potential for recovery in the euro if conditions stabilize.

How other firms see it

Firms such as jpmorgan and citi share a similar outlook, anticipating a gradual recovery for the euro against the dollar. In contrast, bofa and deutsche express more pessimistic views, forecasting further declines in the EUR/USD pair.

The trajectory of the EUR/USD is closely linked to ECB policy decisions and the broader economic indicators from the Eurozone. Traders should also monitor the USD/JPY pair, as movements there may provide additional context for dollar strength or weakness.

What the calendar says

...