Euro To Dollar Price Forecast: EUR/USD Holds Near 1.16 As Range-Bound Trading Ahead - Exchange Rates Org UK

What the desk is arguing

The desk argues that the EUR/USD will likely hold around the 1.16 mark as it navigates through a range-bound trading environment. Per the full note source, this reflects the current dynamics of monetary policy from both the ECB and the Fed, which are influencing market sentiment and positioning.

Supporting this view, recent data shows that the ECB has opted to keep interest rates steady, which has provided some support for the euro. However, the dollar remains robust, with traders closely monitoring upcoming economic releases that could sway market expectations.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)

This outlook aligns with jpmorgan, which sees a slightly stronger euro, while bofa presents a more bearish view, suggesting that our desk's call is at the higher end of the spectrum.

How other firms see it

Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned with our cautious stance, anticipating that the EUR/USD will remain stable in the near term. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary view, predicting a decline towards the lower end of the range.

The trajectory of EUR/USD is closely tied to the ECB's monetary policy decisions and the upcoming US economic data releases, particularly those related to inflation and employment, which could impact the Fed's future actions.

What the calendar says

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