Skip to content

Live cross-firm bank consensus across 20+ desks — FX, oil & gold

View bank forecasts
UBS ON AIR

Fixed Income Conversation Corner: Private Credit edition with Dan Oneglia (Blackstone) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)

Ubs
Read full speech on ubs.com
Share

At a Glance

The desk posits that the private credit market remains resilient despite recent headline risks, which may temporarily overshadow its underlying strength. Per the full note source, the commentary emphasizes remaining focused on performance drivers and client-centric investment strategies as the Federal Reserve reassesses its policy path over the next 6-12 months. Market participants are particularly advised to sift through potential noise as private credit investments are expected to continue gaining traction in a changing economic landscape, especially as businesses seek flexible financing options. Significant shifts in monetary policy may provide further context for navigating anticipated volatility.

Key Takeaways

  • 01Despite recent headline risks, private credit is seen as resilient and attractive for investors seeking yield.
  • 02Focus on performance drivers and client strategies is essential as Fed policy recalibrates over the next year.
  • 03Expert perspectives from Blackstone and UBS indicate a shift in private credit dynamics that may benefit investors.
  • 04Institutional interest in private credit is likely to grow as businesses pursue flexible financing options.

Full Analysis

What the desk is arguing

The desk believes that the emerging risks surrounding private credit should not overshadow its fundamental value. In a recent discussion, experts from Blackstone and UBS highlighted the need for investors to focus on the right performance indicators, especially during uncertain economic periods influenced by Fed policy updates.

The conversation comes amid a noteworthy shift in Fed projections, with the possibility of rate adjustments over the coming year. As noted in various reports, private credit remains attractive as institutions look for yield in a low-rate environment, particularly as alternative investments aggregate more significant capital inflows.

Where it sits in our coverage

N/A

How other firms see it

N/A

What the calendar says

N/A

Market Implications

Market participants should closely monitor Fed announcements regarding interest rate policies and potential shifts in monetary policy that could influence private credit liquidity and investor sentiment. Any sign of prolonged volatility may test the resilience of the private credit market.

From the original

A wide-ranging conversation on the landscape for private credit investing, including performance drivers, risk considerations, and what’s important for investors to focus on. Featured are Dan Oneglia, Global CIO of Liquid Credit Strategies, CEO and Co-CIO of Blackstone Multi-Asse

Related speeches

4 items
UBS ON AIR

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Dan Hyman (PIMCO) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)

The desk believes that the current fixed income landscape presents unique opportunities amid volatility caused by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. As discussed in the recent PIMCO and UBS podcast, market participants are seeing widening spreads and increased uncertainty, suggesting that astute investors might find value in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). With a consensus target for the USD/EUR at 1.075, traders should navigate carefully given the lack of high-impact events on the calendar that might shift sentiment temporarily.

UBS ON AIR

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Adam Bloch (Guggenheim) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)

The desk is interpreting the recent evolution of the fixed income landscape as a complex interplay between macroeconomic uncertainty and evolving monetary policy. Per the full note from UBS, notable figures such as the rise in 10-year Treasury yields from 3.94% to as high as 4.48% during regional conflicts illustrates market volatility that has implications for risk assets and fixed income strategies. Recent market behavior, including equity markets reaching new highs following a ceasefire in early April, suggests that risk-on sentiment is influencing investors' outlook toward credit spreads and yields.

UBS ON AIR

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Scott DiMaggio (AllianceBernstein) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)

The desk is positioning for a potential strengthening of fixed income as markets navigate heightened volatility. Per the full note [source], both Scott DiMaggio from AllianceBernstein and Leslie Falconeo from UBS emphasize the opportunities in fixed income, citing recent strong performance across the curve and suggesting that the asset class is poised for further gains, especially with compressing spreads. This outlook aligns with the recent data that shows credit market resilience amid a shifting macro landscape influenced by monetary policy. Moreover, institutional traders should keep an eye on key levels and potential directional shifts, particularly as we approach critical inflation readings later this quarter.

UBS ON AIR

Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Clayton Triick (Angel Oak) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)

The desk argues Agency RMBS and the housing market are well-positioned as the Fed pivots from rate-cut fears to inflation vigilance, with the 10-year yield rising ~50bp from 3.94% in late February. Per the full note [source], this shift has repriced fixed-income assets, making agency mortgages an attractive diversifier in a higher-for-longer rate environment. The synthesis sees near-term value in MBS but warns that geopolitical whipsaw could tighten spreads. No consensus target is tracked as no FX pair is cited.

More from UBS ON AIR

5 items

FX Bank Forecast aggregates and synthesises central-bank commentary. Sentiment scoring and bank tagging are heuristic — verify against the original source before trading. We do not endorse third-party content.

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

Institutional FX coverage in your inbox

Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 20+ institutional desks. No promotion.