Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Scott DiMaggio (AllianceBernstein) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
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Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on the credit market, an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Inco
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The desk believes that the current fixed income landscape presents unique opportunities amid volatility caused by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. As discussed in the recent PIMCO and UBS podcast, market participants are seeing widening spreads and increased uncertainty, suggesting that astute investors might find value in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). With a consensus target for the USD/EUR at 1.075, traders should navigate carefully given the lack of high-impact events on the calendar that might shift sentiment temporarily.
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The desk is interpreting the recent evolution of the fixed income landscape as a complex interplay between macroeconomic uncertainty and evolving monetary policy. Per the full note from UBS, notable figures such as the rise in 10-year Treasury yields from 3.94% to as high as 4.48% during regional conflicts illustrates market volatility that has implications for risk assets and fixed income strategies. Recent market behavior, including equity markets reaching new highs following a ceasefire in early April, suggests that risk-on sentiment is influencing investors' outlook toward credit spreads and yields.
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The desk argues Agency RMBS and the housing market are well-positioned as the Fed pivots from rate-cut fears to inflation vigilance, with the 10-year yield rising ~50bp from 3.94% in late February. Per the full note [source], this shift has repriced fixed-income assets, making agency mortgages an attractive diversifier in a higher-for-longer rate environment. The synthesis sees near-term value in MBS but warns that geopolitical whipsaw could tighten spreads. No consensus target is tracked as no FX pair is cited.
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Lead — The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields is indicative of underlying market tensions and shifting expectations surrounding monetary policy, driven by an unexpected extension of the ceasefire dynamics in the geopolitical landscape. Per the full note from UBS, 10-year Treasury yields recently spiked by around 25 basis points, reaching levels not seen since early 2025. This underscores an evolving outlook on fixed income, which traders should consider as they navigate upcoming market movements and positioning across key currency pairs.
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