FOMC meeting risks to favour the dollar this week?
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Société Générale | Bearish | 1.1400 |
Scotiabank | Bearish | 1.1200 |
Commerzbank | Bullish | 1.2200 |
From the original
With all that is happening with US-Iran developments and the big selloff in tech shares, let's not forget that there is still the central bank bonanza this week. And on that note, none is bigger than the FOMC meeting that will come tomorrow. The Fed policy decision in itself is e
Related speeches
4 itemsFX Daily: Risk assets rally, central banks in focus
The desk envisions a bullish outlook for risk assets driven by geopolitical developments, coupled with a vital week for central bank policy. As the confirmation of a ceasefire between the US and Iran led to a rally in risk assets globally, the consequent cooling in energy prices and softening of the dollar suggests a short-term bullish bias. Per the full note by ing-think, the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday will play a critical role in tempering potential dollar downside, as markets anticipate a firm stance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. With seven G10 central banks gathering this week, including notable events in the US, UK, and beyond, we foresee heightened focus on inflation management strategies, particularly following recent inflationary trends.
FX Daily: FOMC minutes can reinforce dollar floor
The desk views the upcoming release of the FOMC minutes as a significant catalyst for reinforcing the dollar's bullish momentum, particularly in a context where geopolitical risks such as US-Iran tensions are not garnering strong market attention. Per the full note, the FOMC minutes are expected to emphasize a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve, which should provide support for the dollar across key pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Given that current market positioning reflects a strong belief in further tightening, a hawkish signal will likely consolidate this outlook. This aligns with wider consensus forecasts pointing to a firmer dollar, even as the current spot rates for major pairs remain below long-term targets.